Prime Minister Stephen Harper has shown himself to be well-versed in Canadian hockey history. Perhaps if he were to work on a book on how scandals have been the most common way ruling parties are kicked out of office in federal politics, the start of the Mike Duffy trial would have Harper shaking in his boots.
The details that are going to come out of the trial over the next two months for the disgraced senator will be frantically reported by breathless TV reporters and extensively analyzed by Parliamentary pundits. Whether Duffy abused his office and committed fraud is somewhat irrelevant. The real issue for voters will be to find out whether Duffy is a lone wolf behaving badly or whether his actions are typical of senators in general and Harper Conservatives in particular.
With a federal election likely this fall, most voters aren't going to spend too much time dwelling on what stinks about this whole affair. For a parent noting suspicious odors emanating from their toddler, why it smells bad is obvious and making the smell go away is the top priority. Governments are like diapers, the old saying goes. Every once in a while they need changing and for exactly the same reason.
The tawdry details behind the scandals that tarnished Brian Mulroney and Jean Chretien as prime ministers or Bill Vander Zalm and Glen Clark as B.C. premiers have been mostly forgotten by all but political historians. Regardless of political stripe, these were the leaders of parties that had enjoyed multiple terms in office but no longer met the sniff test from voters.
All four of those leaders didn't stick around to face the wrath of voters one last time. They either took themselves out of the race or were forced out by their own party but voters weren't fooled and cast the whole party into opposition or oblivion.
The question is how much stink will come out of the Duffy trial but it seems that regardless of the smell and how much it will damage both Harper and the ruling Conservatives in the eyes (and noses) of voters, Harper plans to captain the good ship Tory in the upcoming election, going against the example set by those previous leaders trying to rise above scandal.
In his book The Myth of the Strong Leader: Political Leadership in the Modern Age, Archie Brown praises the sophistication of voters across the decades and various countries. They are not fooled by changes in leadership a short time before an election. Brown cites extensive research by historians and political scientists that shows leaders are generally not as important as they think they are, in both winning and losing elections. When voters truly want change, he argues, they don't just vote for new leaders but for different parties as well.
On the surface, Christy Clark's surprise win in 2013 seems to run against that notion but the opposite is true. Remember, Clark and the Liberals worked hard to remind voters of how badly the NDP stunk in office during the 1990s and mercilessly tied then leader Adrian Dix to that era. Clark's charisma helped the Liberals and Dix's absent-minded professor routine hurt the NDP but the memory of the mess left behind by the NDP frightened enough voters to give the Liberals one more chance.
A similar tactic could serve Harper well in attacking federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. Instead of targeting Trudeau the leader for his inexperience, Harper and the Conservatives should conjure up the spectre of Chretien and Pierre Trudeau. "Haven't you had enough Liberal government for one lifetime?" would be enough to trigger angry memories for many voters over 50, particularly in Western Canada and Quebec.
The key for Harper and the Conservatives, including Bob Zimmer and Todd Doherty in this area, will be to convince voters that Duffy (and Pamela Wallin and Patrick Brazeau) are the rotten (and removed) fruit in an otherwise fine bin of apples. The Harper Conservatives will strive to direct voter anger against these individuals and away from them and their party.
Their ability or inability to do that and meet the sniff test from voters is what will truly decide the fortunes of the Conservatives at the polls later this year.
