There is a Japanese proverb which says: "vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare."
I think this is a proverb our governments should live by. Whether at a municipal level where we have the fantasy of a performing arts centre or at a federal level where the government tends to have knee jerk responses, it is the combination of vision with action that produces good results and good government.
In this regard, consider the position the BC Liberals now find themselves in with Liquefied Natural Gas. The vision, as clearly articulated over the past few years, was to have multiple LNG plants up and operating on the north coast in the near future. Billions in revenue to the provincial coffers, we were told and hundreds of thousands good paying jobs. Spin off industrial activity stretching all the way to Prince George.
It was a grand vision. Unfortunately, it wasn't a vision that the government could control or put into action. It depended heavily on outside players - energy corporations willing to invest in the resource.
The idea seemed really quite simple. Natural gas would be obtained by drilling in the northeast, piped across the province, liquefied at large facilities on the coast, and shipped to Asia. The differential in price between the North American market and the Asian market at the time made this look like a "can't lose" proposition.
However, as the Financial Post put it: "A sharp fall in European and Asian gas prices this year will put liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects worldwide under heavy cost pressure, and even kill some off, as expected returns on investments have to be revised down along with prices." The market has done what markets do.
Things are not looking so rosy any more. The vision has gotten a little cloudy. Increasingly, energy companies are asking whether investing in B.C. is worthwhile. The government's vision is not being met by the actions of the corporations.
This is not the fault of the corporations. They are doing what they are supposed to do - watching the bottom line. They are trying to maximize the return on investment for their stockholders.
No, the problem comes down to a flawed vision. It wasn't actionable on the part of government. They lack the capacity to turn the vision into reality unless they choose to get into the LNG business themselves. And that would be the day!
But perhaps this cooling off of interest in LNG is a good thing.
Paying off the provincial debt and establishing a legacy fund which could have sustained us into the future sounded like a good idea during the most recent election. Indeed, elections are full of great sounding promises, which is perhaps why no one takes politicians too seriously during an election.
However, as the tax dollar value of the various LNG projects gets re-forecasted downward, and as major players seem to be less interested in our resource, it might slow some of the pace of development down for communities such as Prince Rupert, Kitimat, and Terrace.
It might afford us a deep breath, so to speak and, at the very least, a moment to pause and reflect on exactly what we are trying to do.
It might also allow for some sober second thoughts on the whole issue of natural gas as a solution to the problems that ail the planet.
Our premier has stated on many occasions that natural gas is a clean form of energy. It is a disingenuous statement at best. The combustion of natural gas results in the production of carbon dioxide, plain and simple. Chemistry will have its way.
Yes, the amount of energy that you can get out of natural gas for each kilogram of carbon dioxide generated is significantly greater than for coal or other forms of fuel. But is producing more energy really what we should be trying to do?
This past week, the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions in conjunction with the Pembina Institute releases a white paper entitled: "LNG and Climate Change: The Global Context". They reached the following conclusion:
"We conclude that natural gas has a role to play in a world that avoids 2 C of warming, but that role is unlikely to materialize unless shaped by strong climate change policies in the jurisdictions that produce and consume the gas. Because these policies are not currently in place, claiming that natural gas, and specifically LNG from BC, is a climate solution is inaccurate."
In other words, LNG is a great vision but only if it is backed up by action.
There is much left to do and hopefully, in the coming years, we will avoid both the daydreams and the nightmares.
