If you base your playoff prediction on what happened in the lead-in to the WHL playoffs, the first-round series between the Prince George Cougars and Seattle Thunderbirds looks like a doozy of mismatch.
The Thunderbirds won 13 of their last 14 games and muscled their way to the U.S. Division regular season title with 45 wins -- the second-most in franchise history.
The Cougars, on the other hand, came out like gangbusters the first half of the season to climb into the WHL's high-rent district, but were a shadow of themselves in January, February and March as they faded into mediocrity and dropped down to wild-card status. They won just three of their last 10, posting the worst final 10-game record of any of the 16 WHL playoff teams.
Fortunately for the Cougars, it's not all doom and gloom. Their strong start was enough to push them into the playoffs and they won enough games down the stretch to rack up 36 victories, the second-highest win total since the franchise moved north from Victoria in 1994.
Now they just have to figure out how to win four games over the next 12 days to eliminate one of the hottest teams in the league.
It all begins tonight at 7:35 p.m. in Kent, Wash., home of the rowdiest fans in the league, and the Cougars are counting on feeding off that energy to bring out the best in them. While the Cougars' late-season tailspin dropped them in the standings into wild-card slot, it means they avoided having to play the defending champion Kelowna Rockets in the first round. There's no doubt the Cats prefer having to play Seattle instead.
"We feel we match up good against these guys, it's a pretty good atmosphere in there and we feel those fans there can bring us energy on the road," said Cougars 20-year-old winger Luke Harrison.
"We feel great playing Seattle. They do have skill players and a great goaltender on their back end but so do we, we have a great goaltender right now. We feel we match up good with them.
"Playoffs are the funnest time of the year and I want it to go as long as we can and I feel we have the team to do it. It's going to be very exciting and I just hope the fans in Prince George come out to support. We're going to put on a show."
In five WHL seasons, 20-year-old winger Chase Witala has established individual team records for goals and points but has yet to win a playoff series with the Cougars. Despite the Cats' underdog status heading into the series, he's thinking that drought will end soon.
"I think once the playoffs come around we'll be a totally different team," said Cougars winger Chase Witala. "They're another physical team that likes to throw their body around and they have a couple key players who can hurt us for sure. (Mathew) Barzal is a guy who could win the series on his own, he's that good. But if we play our physical game and shut them down, I think their depth isn't as strong as ours and I think it's going to be a positive outcome for us."
The teams each won two games in the four-game season series. The T-birds won the first game 4-1 at home Oct. 3 and in a penalty-filled rematch in Seattle Dec. 15, the Cougars triumphed 6-2. Seattle split the two-game set in Prince George, losing 6-2 on Jan. 12, then shut out the Cougars 4-0 the following night.
"They've got points in 14 straight (games) and they've been competing well, but playoffs are brand-new and what we've done in the regular season and what they've done doesn't mean a whole lot at this point," said Cougars head coach Mark Holick.
Dating back five seasons, the Cougars have fared extremely well in the home of the T-birds, winning eight and losing two. This season, the T-birds posted a league-best 29-5-2-0 record at ShoWare Center.
"I think we match up pretty well," said Holick. "We're 2-2 and the goals were close, for and against. They play a big heavy game and we like to play that style, too, so it should be a close matchup. It's going to come down to goaltending and discipline and if we stay out of the penalty box and give ourselves a chance to play 5-on-5 or better, I think we have a good shot at it.
"We're not going into the playoffs on fire, like they are, and I've been on both sides of it. I've been on teams that have limped in and done well and I've been on teams that have come into playoffs hot and find a way to lose. Playoffs are a different animal."
There's no doubt, avoiding unnecessary penalties will be a key in the series. Seattle's power play ranked third-best in the WHL, operating with 23.7 per cent efficiency, and no team was better at killing penalties (85.3 per cent success rate).
The Cougars were third in the league on the penalty kill (82.1 per cent) and that was out of necessity for a team which, for the second straight season, led the WHL in penalty minutes with 1,292, an average 17.9 minutes per game, compared to the T-birds' average 13.6 minutes.
The Cougars' 17th-ranked power play (18.5 per cent success rate) failed to score in the four games against against Seattle, going 0-for-14. Seattle averaged five power-play chances per game against Prince George. For the Cougars to be successful in the series, they'll have to reduce that number. The Cougars pose a significant threat to score in penalty-killing situations. Their 14 shorthanded goals was one behind league-leading Brandon.
Jesse Gabrielle scored seven of those shorties and went on to become the youngest 40-goal score in the Prince George franchise history. The Boston Bruins' prospect has been everything the Cougars hoped he'd be when they picked him up in an off-season trade from Regina.
Gabrielle (40-35-75) finished four points behind Witala (40-39-79) who finished 16th in the scoring race. The Cougars have considerable scoring balance with Brad Morrison (28-34-62), Jansen Harkins (24-33-57), and rookie Brogan O'Brien (18-38-56) all with 50 points or more.
Tate Olson has emerged as a blueline leader and he and Joe Carvalho, Sam Ruopp, Shane Collins and Shaun Dosanjh will be expected to carry the load in the playoffs, with punishing sophomore Josh Anderson out with season-ending back injury.
Ty Edmonds has played well enough in goal lately to carry the Cougars into the playoffs. If he does falter, Nick McBride sports a.904 save percentage and is capable of doing the job.
Seattle's fortunes changed the day they acquired 20-year-old goalie Landon Bow at the trade deadline from Swift Current, probably one of the most impactful deals made in the WHL all season. In 23 games with the T-birds, the six-foot-five Bow's numbers were staggering -- 1.76 goals-against average, .938 save percentage, five shutouts and a 16-6-0-0 record. Riding on Bow's coattails, Seattle gained 35 of a possible 38 points in the final 19 games of the season.
"We had to win games down the stretch," T-Birds head coach Steve Konowalchuk told Andy Eide of 710 ESPN Seattle. "It started out when our whole division was tight and you could take first place or be fighting for a playoff spot. That changed our whole mentality. It was time to get going and get playing the right way."
Barzal was the only Seattle player in the top-30 in scoring but they still averaged three goals per game. Despite missing 14 games with his pro and world junior team commitments, Barzal (27-61-88) tied for 11th in the scoring race, Ethan Bear (19-46-65) was the fifth-highest scoring WHL defenceman and joined Barzal on the Western Conference first all-star team.
Ryan Gropp (24-35-70), a New York Rangers second-round draft pick in 2015, also maintained a point-per-game pace. The T-birds also have right winger Keegan Kolesar (30-31-61) to deal with and Scott Eansor (12-30-42) has gained a reputation as one of the top defensive centres in the WHL.
"They have a big physical team and they'll try to run us out of the rink," said Olson, "but I think our team can handle that. We don't let anybody push us around."
Jerret Smith is as steady as they come on defence and the 20-year-old T-birds captain is surrounded by a supporting cast which includes veterans Bear, Jared Hauf, Turner Ottenbreit, Brandon Schuldhaus and rookie Bryan Allbee of Prince George, who must be counting his blessings the last-overall Kootenay Ice traded him to Seattle in January. Allbee has been out with an upper-body injury and is listed as day-to-day.
Prediction: It goes against the logic of history, but... Cougars in seven.
Cougars vs. Thunderbirds Schedule
WHL playoffs
Western Conference quarterfinal (best-of-seven)
Seattle Thunderbirds (45-23-4-0, first in U.S. Division) vs. Prince George Cougars (36-31-3-2), fourth in B.C. Division)
Game 1: Tonight at Seattle, 7:35 p.m.
Game 2: Saturday at Seattle, 7:05 p.m.
Game 3: Tuesday at CN Centre, 7 p.m.
Game 4: Wednesday at CN Centre, 7 p.m.
*Game 5: Friday, April 1 at Seattle, 7:35 p.m.
*Game 6: Sunday, April 3, at CN Centre, 7 p.m.
*Game 7: Tuesday, April 5, at Seattle, 7:05 p.m.
* -- if necessary
