"I'm dreaming of a white Christmas" might be more than a song lyric in Prince George this year.
As the big day approaches, the forecast is warm and wet around PG, with a high of 7 C currently expected on Friday, Dec. 14. The average for this time of year hovers around -3 C or -4 C.
Historically, Prince George has a 90 per cent chance of a white Christmas. This year, however, the city might be snow-free on Dec. 25, according to Environment Canada meteorologist Doug Lundquist.
He says with Christmas 14 days out, it's difficult to predict which way the pendulum will swing, as the forecasting methods used are less accurate after 10 days.
"That being said, we have a real warm pattern going on right now," he says. "The likelihood of a white Christmas is lower than usual."
With not much on the ground, temperatures predicted to be above (or hover around) 0 C and rain in the forecast, the current white blanket isn't likely to survive the weekend.
Lundquist is basing that on the fact it's currently warm and will be for several days. Broadly speaking, B.C. is in an El Nino year, the waters in the Pacific are warmer than average for this time of year and the sea ice in Alaska is lower than usual. All of these factors play into Prince George's weather patterns.
"With the long range forecast, looking at all of North America, there's almost nowhere expected to be below average," adds Lundquist.
While most data suggests no snow on Christmas, he says some of Environment Canada's models do predict that the white stuff will fall on Dec. 25. Lundquist says a cooling trend is expected by next Tuesday (Dec. 18), where temperatures will be near an average of below zero.
"It looks like perhaps, between a week and 10 days from now, it'll cool off," he says, but adds there's a lot going against it.
The last year Prince George had a snow-free Christmas was in 2005.
