In his book Wait: The Art And Science Of Delay, Frank Partnoy dispels the myth of quick, decisive action and gut instinct. The reality is that the best athletes, corporate executives, soldiers and politicians know when to slow down and hold off on important decisions.
Hockey players talk all the time about "being patient with the puck," even when the fans are screaming "Shoot!" The best baseball hitters talk about "sitting back" on a pitch, even one coming at more than 150 kmh. Soldiers, as well as game hunters, prefer the best shot, not the first shot. Both the record-breaking Canadian sniper and his spotter must be masters of delay, willing to wait until the most ideal conditions before pulling the trigger.
Neither John Horgan nor Christy Clark are showing they have patience. In their haste, they are making potentially catastrophic errors that could have both short-term and long-term impact on their political fortunes.
First, Horgan.
He made a public display Monday afternoon in the rose garden of the legislature, meeting with voters who cast a ballot for change after 16 years of B.C. Liberal rule. He has made it quite clear that he can't wait for Thursday and that non-confidence vote. With support from the Greens, Clark's government is expected to fall by one vote and it's then expected that Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon would then call on Horgan to become premier and form government.
But what's the hurry?
In the throne speech last week, Clark's Liberals introduced 30 initiatives that they did not campaign on in April and May. Instead, the NDP and the Greens, to varying degrees, campaigned on increased legal aid, free adult basic education, raising welfare rates, banning corporate and union donations to political parties, dropping the toll on the Port Mann bridge and a huge boost for childcare.
Clearly, Clark is willing to do and say anything to stay in power. So maybe Horgan should grant her wish.
He should vote to approve the throne speech, laughing all the way about how familiar he is with the platform compared to Clark. That's the wait part.
Then, when the startled Liberals seek to adjourn for the summer, Horgan and the Greens should pounce, using their one-vote majority to keep the legislature in session all summer, and into the fall if necessary, so all of those great ideas introduced in the throne speech by the Liberals be passed as soon as possible.
And if Clark decides to drag her feet, Horgan, with support from Andrew Weaver's Greens, can simply introduce private member's bills, ripped directly from the Throne Speech so the Liberals can't oppose them without looking two-faced. Publicly, Horgan could slam Clark for her insincerity towards her own legislative agenda and her laziness for not wanting to work through the summer, just like most British Columbians do.
Horgan would be waiting to be premier but holding back would give him the pleasure of having Clark and her MLAs approve all the things he campaigned for during the election, while toying with a lame-duck premier that he has the votes to defeat her any time he wishes. Naturally, he would to do that at the worst possible moment for the Liberals.
That patience could ultimately pay off with an NDP majority government, where he can choose to ignore Andrew Weaver at his leisure.
But Clark shouldn't be so hasty, either. There is an opportunity for her to score a big win by holding back, too.
If Horgan wants his non-confidence vote, she should give it to him. And if Horgan truly wants Kelowna Liberal MLA Steve Thomson to remain on as the speaker, she should grant his wish again.
She should then hold a press conference to announce her resignation as premier but also hold Horgan's feet to the fire. If she can put up a Liberal MLA to be speaker, why can't Premier Horgan cancel his summer vacation, immediately name a cabinet (they've been waiting 16 years to govern so what's the hold up?) and get to work?
Clark was a feared MLA while in opposition for her regular potent skewing of the NDP and their cabinet ministers. Her tongue is still sharp.
The likely missteps out of the gate by Horgan and his rookie ministers, as well as the inevitable leaks out of a civil service filled with Liberal appointees, would give Clark all the ammunition she would need to remind voters why an NDP government is incompetent and bad for B.C.
The speaker is the key to the plan. At the most vulnerable moment for Horgan, when either his deal with the Greens would be falling apart or one or more of his MLAs are out of commission, Thomson would resign and Clark would refuse to put up a new speaker, arguing that the training wheels are off and it's time for Horgan to be a big boy premier.
During the inevitable election to follow, Clark wouldn't have to use the tired "remember the 1990s" line. She could just spend 35 days saying "you just had x number of months of John Horgan. Can you imagine the damage he and the NDP could cause in four years? Vote Liberal."
In that scenario, Horgan's haste to be premier looks like a disaster waiting to happen while Clark's epic political comeback would make 2013 look like a cakewalk and cement her legacy as a savvy leader and campaigner.
Both Horgan and Clark could use the power of patience, along with the nerve to give their political adversary what they want - in the short-term - to set themselves up for a significant majority government in a spring 2018 election.
Sadly, that's where Horgan and Clark seem sadly alike. Neither of them seems to have the discipline to put their political ideals and their party ahead of their naked personal ambition to sit in the premier's chair. If one of them was willing to wait, they could find a far more comfortable chair waiting for them and the taste of victory would be that much sweeter.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
