Bruce Strachan
Right Side Up
For shoppers, there's 23 days left until Christmas. For those of you into political intrigue, there's 86 days left until the provincial Liberal leadership convention.
We know what's happening Dec. 25. Predicting the outcome of Feb. 26, 2011, is a bit more challenging. So, who's been naughty and who's been nice and who can win? Here's a look at the candidates, either announced or seriously teetering.
The announced contenders are Kevin Falcon, George Abbott, Moira Stilwell and Mike de Jong. Falcon, Abbott and de Jong are seasoned politicians while Stilwell was elected for the first time in May 2009.
Falcon and Abbott have the inside track. I'm giving the edge to Falcon largely due to his record of getting tough things done. He is a producer.
He's also a demonstrated and strong proponent of regional development. Having said that, don't count out Abbott. He's low key but effective. He has a great sense of humour and a more moderate approach to problem solving. Abbott has said he will be a "collaborative leader." Collaboration has not been seen as a Liberal strong suit, and in this promise, Abbott may have struck a welcome and relieved note with middle-of-the-road party members.
Mike de Jong is solid, and it's too early to assess his support within the party. In the dynamics of a closely-contested fight he could be considered as a king- or queen-maker, but not there on the final ballot.
From a Prince George perspective, de Jong was a forests minister and local forest industry officials say he served the forest portfolio with some success, but nowhere near the enthusiasm of current minister Pat Bell. The record shows de Jong as being a competent and effective attorney general.
Dr. Moira Stilwell is an important and welcome addition to the leadership race. Stilwell is a radiologist, and prior to being elected in 2009, was the head of nuclear medicine at St. Paul's Hospital.
Stilwell brings intellect to the Liberal contest and her entry will raise the level and content of leadership debate. For example, as the first announced candidate, Stilwell spoke to the need of addressing B.C.'s minimum wage. On a local note, when Stilwell was appointed minister of advanced education in the spring of 2009, her first out-of-town visit was to UNBC. Stilwell should draw support from the medical and academic community, a force that can't be discounted by any of the other candidates.
In the seriously teetering department, and looking in from the outside, is former Liberal MLA and cabinet minister Christy Clark.
Clark was first elected in 1996 and served in the opposition benches with Gordon Campbell. Following the Liberal win in 2001, Clark was appointed deputy premier and minister of education. In 2004, she became minister of children and families.
In the fall of 2004, she announced she would not run in the upcoming 2005 general election, saying she wanted to spend more time with her three-year-old son. Since 2007, Clark has been hosting a daily open-line show on CKNW. She's a popular and well-researched investigative reporter. Recent polling has her leading the pack, if she decides to run.
However, and there's always a however, Bill Tieleman, NDP activist and high-profile Vancouver political commentator is on Clark's case about her alleged connection to documents leaked during the BC Rail/CNR negotiations.
These documents played a minor role in the ensuing Basi-Virk/BC Rail court case.
Tieleman's been harping about this since September and if Christy Clark announces her candidacy, you can bet Tieleman will rattle the alleged skeletons in Christy's closet with considerable enthusiasm.
The BC Rail trial is over, but in politics it's not uncommon for the commentary to overtake the story.
As Christmas approaches, interest in the Liberal leadership race will give way to festive season frivolities. But, expect the intensity to pick up shortly into the New Year.
Looking at the candidate list, it's fair to say this will be a genteel and disciplined campaign. None of the contenders can be considered as loose cannons or given to off-the-wall proposals. Moreover, following the leadership convention, and with the exception of Christy Clark, the current candidates will still be Liberal MLAs working as diligently as they can to win the next election.
During the heat of the leadership battle, all must remember that no matter what they think of each other, the real opponent is the NDP.
Plus, all face the tough prospect of delivering the Liberals from the HST fiasco. The candidates have to put a new and refreshed policy face on the Liberal brand without reflecting too poorly on their previous records as cabinet ministers.
A daunting task? You bet. To the victor, the spoils.
