It's almost over.
The 2015 federal election campaign was more than twice as long as the usual five-week sprint to the ballot box. So much has changed since it started during the August long weekend. The Toronto Blue Jays were tied with the Baltimore Orioles, six games behind the New York Yankees in the American League East division. The NDP were ahead in the national polls and the Liberals were running a distant third. Stephen Harper had just ordered cheques sent out to all Canadian parents for a child tax credit. Everybody was mad at an American dentist for shooting a lion in Africa. The coroner's inquest into the deadly explosion and fire at Babine Forest Products in Burns Lake had just wrapped up.
On the negative side, this whole affair has been unnecessarily expensive and nasty. The politics of fear has been used without shame by all sides, encouraging Canadians to be afraid of their politicians and one another. Social media destroyed the personal reputations of otherwise decent candidates, who had the misfortune of doing or saying something really stupid online once.
Yet the positives outweighed the negatives. The length of time at the top of the national news agenda fostered more voter interest. Topics not normally part of the discussion by candidates and the leaders, like refugees and what it means to be a Canadian, were included this time around.
In the first week of the election, I wrote an editorial about five things to watch during this campaign. Making predictions is always fun. So how did I do?
1. Harper jumping the shark
The child tax credit as buying votes theory has been forgotten already. Harper is still making the claim (and finding support) that he's the only reliable hand behind the wheel of the Canadian economy, although Justin Trudeau has scored points with the comeback to voters: "Stephen Harper doesn't run the Canadian economy, you do!" We still won't know until election night whether voters feel the same way about Harper's campaign gimmicks that viewers did when the Fonz jumped the shark on Happy Days to boost ratings. Outcome: uncertain.
2. Money, money, money
"Cash flow could turn what looks like a close race into another majority for the Conservatives." Oops. Turns out money can't buy political certainty, after all. Should have known that better after last year's mayoral campaign, where Lyn Hall won handily against a pricier campaign from Don Zurowski. At the national level, the vaunted Conservative campaign war chest doesn't look like it will deliver the value per vote it should, compared to the much more frugal Liberal and NDP campaigns. Outcome: missed by a mile.
3. Trudeau taking big risks
As right about this one as I was wrong about the money. "Trudeau will have to swing for the fences, trying to hit a home run during a signature moment in the campaign that separates him from both Harper and the NDP's Tom Mulcair." There's been several of those moments for Trudeau and they've all paid off so far, from his declaration that he's willing to run deficits to boost the economy to his counterpunching against both Harper and Mulcair during the debates and in his highly effective TV spots. Outcome: nailed it.
4. Voter fatigue
Low voter turnout? Boring campaign? Electorate "exhausted and disconnected from the process?" Outcome: missed by ten miles.
5. Mulcair taking no risks
"Playing it safe by the frontrunner in the polls can suck the life out of a campaign." Check. "The federal NDP seem thrilled and ecstatic they're in first place in the polls, instead of projecting the cool confidence of expecting to be the choice of voters." Check again. The comparisons to Adrian Dix in 2013 and how the NDP can "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" appear to be accurate. Instead of articulating a bold vision, Mulcair (and Dix before him) spent the campaign telling people voting for the NDP wouldn't be that different from the other parties (hey, we like balanced budgets and strong leadership, too!). "Don't worry about it" is not an effective campaign message. Outcome: nailed it.
Two right, two wrong and one maybe. Not bad.
In the end, however, my crystal ball means nothing. The only thing that matters now, for journalists, commentators and the candidates, is your vote.
See you at the polls.
