On March 21, Chris Hatfield released a video on YouTube titled “An Astronauts Guide to Self Isolation.” Hatfield spent considerable time in the space station in isolation, which, according to him, is an extremely dangerous environment where astronauts thrive in finding ways to be productive.
The number one tip that Hatfield gives to viewers is that we need to understand the actual risk. “Don’t just be afraid of things, go to a credible source and find out what is truly the risk you are facing.”
So what is the actual risk of contracting and dying of COVID-19? Well, according to the numbers, if you are over 70 and living in a seniors housing complex, your risk is substantial. In France, one-third of all Covid-19 deaths have been of the elderly living in care facilities. Italy, Germany and Spain have all reported significant proportions of their deaths to the elderly in care facilities.
Here in Canada, the numbers are not all that different. Many provinces have reported that close to 50 per cent of the deaths associated with COVID-19 are in seniors’ complexes where people are at most risk. On April 3, BC Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry reported that 68 per cent or 24 of the 35 deaths in British Columbia were in long-term care facilities. If this is correct, people should not risk the transmission of disease to seniors and must avoid contact with seniors’ complexes at this time.
The numbers speak for themselves. As I wrote last week, the country of Sweden has evaluated the risks and taken a different stance than most other governments. Restaurants, public spaces and businesses remain open. The government is encouraging social distancing, banned gatherings over 50, promoting considerable handwashing and encouraging sick or at-risk people to stay home.
They have not shut down the country and the effect on business, unemployment, and the economy has been nothing like it has been in other parts of the world where countries are enforcing lockdowns. From a scientific point of view, their approach seems to be working. In fact, if we compare Sweden with the state of New Jersey which has imposed lockdown, we find that Sweden has a population of 10.3 million people, with 11,445 cases of COVID-19 and 1,033 deaths, while New Jersey has 8.9 million residents, 68,824 cases of Covid-19 and 2,805 deaths. Sweden is being criticized for being lax about COVID-19, yet the numbers speak for themselves.
I don’t want to suggest for a moment that COVID-19 is not a serious disease. It is and at the time of writing 735 people have died in Canada. What I am suggesting is that, as Chris Hatfield said, we need to look at the real risks and the facts.
According to Statistics Canada, 216 people die of cancer each and every day in Canada as do 145 people from heart disease and 54 from the flu, pneumonia and respiratory disease. Yes, each and every day of the year!
This means that while we have been laser focused on 735 deaths from COVID-19, 4,600 people have died from the flu, pneumonia and respiratory illness in our country, over 12,000 people have died from heart failure, and more than 18,000 have passed away from cancer. Yet there is no mention in the press or social media of those lives and the fact that many of them died without being surrounded by their families and the loved ones who care for them because our hospitals have been locked down!
We have not shut down the economy to try to deal with these illnesses in the past and we need to give some perspective to this current lockdown because of COVID-19.
I agree that there has been some benefit to the environment and to many families as a result of this slowdown of the economy. Many organizations have had to be innovative and leaders have had to step up because they are going to be judged by their performance during this time.
However, there is considerable unfounded speculation from political leaders and politicians that the country and businesses will need to remain in this state of closure for months and that this illness is going to kill hundreds of thousands of normally healthy Canadians. A continued state of business closure is going to result in the permanent, not temporary, unemployment for many people as businesses permanently.
If this happens, all levels of government are going to have to lay off workers and cut back services as people default on their taxes. The City of Vancouver has recently announced that they are worried about their ability to continue to function as normal. There is still considerable uncertainty about how we are going to pay for the growing federal and provincial deficits needed to stabilize the economy at this time.
According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation,whose projections are being used by state-level governments in the U.S. to forecast infections, deaths and equipment shortages using data provided by the World Health Organization, April 11 marked the peak of COVID-19 infection spread in the U.S. and the disease is now on the decline.
The fear mongering without science about months of necessary lockdown is unacceptable. If Canadians were given the true numbers and risks, they could make up their own minds without anxiety. Let us encourage businesses to get back to work with certain precautions such as social distancing when around seniors, regular handwashing to avoid transmission of illnesses and protection for the most vulnerable including business owners who are at risk of losing everything.
- Dave Fuller, MBA, is an award-winning certified professional business coach and the author of the book Profit Yourself Healthy. Agree or disagree with Dave? Email him at [email protected]
