The House of Commons resumed Monday. For a lot of reasons it was a historic day. The day began with well-deserved tributes to the late Jack Layton, the first NDP leader to take the party to official opposition status.
Monday also was the first sitting of a majority government since the dissolution of the 37th Parliament in May, 2004. It is also the first parliament since 1993 without a significance Bloc Quebecois presence.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is in an interesting place. He has a working majority for the next four years and the two opposition parties he faces are struggling to define their identity. The BQ - reduced to four seats - does not have official party status.
How Harper handles this wealth of parliamentary and political riches will determine his success in the next election and his place in Canadian history. The same can be said for the two interim party leaders and their respective parties. Political debate has more than one side and all times is a multi-edged sword.
There are two difficult issues facing the Harper government and the opposition during the fall session. First, the global economy is on a rocky road and the way Canada manages the ride will be a test of Harper's competence. Interim NDP leader Nycole Turmel made the economy her lead-off item in question period demanding the government produce a jobs strategy. According to Turmel, Canada has to create 420,000 jobs to stay even with our employment position prior to the 2008 recession.
Harper responded saying, "There are more people working in Canada today than before the recession, the only developed country where that is the case."
Score one for Harper. Remember, he won a majority in the last election by keeping his cool on the stable Canadian economy.
Politicians should realize Canadians have little interest in alarmists
Those with a political memory will remember former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff demanding a non-confidence vote in Sept. 2009 and immediately losing credibility. Polling showed Canadians did not agree with his drop-the-writ rant and Ignatieff never regained his place as a convincing prime-minister-in-waiting.
Where the Liberals will go from here is anyone's guess, but you can bet the party will keep a tight reign on political hysteria.
The second issue facing MPs and a ticking time bomb for the NDP with its new-found Quebec support is the thorny issue of adding seats to the House of Commons.
Population increases in B.C., Alberta and Ontario demand that those provinces have their seat-count presence in the Commons increased. It is proposed B.C. be given seven more seats for a new total of 43. Alberta would add five taking their seat count to 26, while Ontario would get 18 more MPs for a total of 124. So far so good, especially for Stephen Harper as those are suburban seats where the Tories enjoy strong support.
However, the seat increase would diminish the Quebec presence in the House. By convention, Quebec has a guarantee of 75 seats but with the proposed additions would lose its parliamentary clout.
Needless to say, Quebec MPs are not too happy with the redistribution proposals, and Quebec MPs in the majority are New Democrats. However, the NDP enjoys substantial support in B.C. and Ontario - after all it is in those provinces where New Democrats raise most of their campaign funds and have the most party members.
In spite of this support, former NDP leader Jack Layton promised Quebec he would block any attempts at redistribution which would disadvantage Quebec. Indeed, when the redistribution debate surfaced last year, Layton wrote then BQ leader Gilles Duceppe saying he would block any legislation that would lead to the reduction of Quebec's political weight in the House of Commons.
The redistribution debate is shaping up to be a parliamentary donnybrook of the first order. The NDP is dominated by Quebec MPs but runs on membership and financial support from Ontario and B.C.
All of which gets us back to the first week of the next four years in Canadian politics which has the potential to be incredibly exciting. History shows us there are no political dynasties. The old Progressive Conservative Party went from a huge majority to two seats in nine years. The Liberals - once known as Canada's naturally governing party - are struggling in third place.
Stephen Harper has the opportunity to lead his party to its second majority government in 2015. He could just as easily blow it. Over on the left, it would take some incredible stick handling but the NDP could form government in our next election. With the right leader the Liberal party could rise from its ashes and re-stake the vote-rich middle ground.
Who says Canadian politics are dull?
