The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a game changer, for Canada, for Canadians and certainly for the last two weeks of this endless federal election campaign.
The agreement in principle reached between the 12 countries is massive. Dwarfing even the European Union, the TPP is the largest trade deal in history, affecting 40 per cent of the global marketplace.
The devil is in the details, of course, which is why it's going to take a few days before the text of the agreement in principle will be released. And then the lawyers will get busy making up a dense legal document for everyone to sign.
The short story, however, is simple. In exchange for improved access to major markets, particularly the highly coveted (and up until now heavily protected) Japanese market, Canada is giving up many, but not all, of the trade protection it provides to Canadian companies from international competitors.
There are winners and losers everywhere, starting with the food sector. For egg, dairy and poultry farmers, the TPP opens up foreign competition in a market they had to themselves. Meanwhile, folks in the fish, beef and pork business are doing the happy dance because of the export opportunities suddenly on the table.
On the campaign trail, promises are already being made to help sectors negatively affected with transition funds. The NDP and the Greens think it's a terrible deal, even without seeing the fine print, the Conservatives are wildly enthusiastic and the Liberals are cautiously supportive.
The TPP announcement offers a huge boost to the Harper Conservatives heading into the home stretch. For Stephen Harper, he gets to return to his core message of the economy, jobs and growth, with himself as the steady hand on the wheel and his opponents as nincompoops. The trade deal will steady the nerves of the hesitant fiscal conservative voters who were dismayed by the hardline taken by the Conservatives on various social issues before and during this election. It also gives Harper the opportunity to paint himself as a business progressive, moving Canada's economy into the 21st century with a visionary trade deal that will create new prosperity and investment. Anyone opposed can be branded by Harper and Conservative candidates across the country as against economic growth, new jobs and fair prices for consumers.
For Tom Mulcair's NDP, the TPP is a chance to stop the bleeding, the so-called "orange crash" being seen in the polls in Ontario and Quebec, with fierce criticism of the TPP as a deal that puts hundreds of thousands of good-paying jobs and entire communities and sectors at risk of being swept under by foreign competitors, with nothing but future uncertainty to show for it.
The "real change" argument suddenly gets tougher for Justin Trudeau's Liberals. Looking good in the polls so far, Trudeau now has to defend his agreement with Harper on not just Bill C-51 but also this giant international trade deal.
Naturally, the small print will get lost during the campaign. Minor details with major implications, such as the when and how the partnership will take effect, will be ignored in favour of partisan swiping. It will take as long as 10 to 15 years for the full scope of the agreement to be seen and, even then, tariffs and other protective measures will still be allowed for many sectors, albeit at a reduced level. In the meantime, the levels of support government will provide to help affected industries to help make the transition is also unknown.
A generation ago, the North American Free Trade Agreement remade numerous parts of the Canadian economy, crippling some sectors, fuelling explosive growth in others and simply dealing with one problem by adding another for more. There were more than a few surprises, both positive and negative, with the only constant being the change that occurred.
The TPP will be the same for Canada, except on a larger scale. It will be years for the full effects and the unintended consequences to reveal themselves. While the TPP will figure in the final outcome of the 2015 federal election, it may actually play a larger role in a future campaign, particularly if Harper returns as prime minister.
