Energy Minister Bill Bennett insisted Wednesday he is strictly impartial about how to go about meeting long-term power needs.
But the assertions were sprinkled through a half-hour discussion with reporters about the Site C power project that sounded pretty enthusiastic about building another big dam on the Peace River. Bennett spoke one day after the federal and provincial environmental review offices gave the project the green light.
Some time before year's end, the call will be made. Spend $8 billion on a new dam, or get the power some other way. Even as Bennett said he isn't leaning one way or the other, it's hard to picture him recommending against the dam.
He said after all the review, the government has concluded that the need for a big new power source is legitimate. Although the government has ruled out an independent review by the B.C. Utilities Commission, he said the commission has validated the forecast for increased demand several times, and so has an outside expert.
"The need is there to justify this kind of project," Bennett said.
Even if B.C. Hydro meets 78 per cent of the increased demand by rigorous new conservation programs, which is the goal, there's still a need for more power.
As for the cost estimate, Bennett stopped short of giving a personal guarantee the dam would come in on budget. That's probably because the most recent power project, a new transmission line to the northwest to service mines, went fantastically over the early estimates. It started out as a $400-million job and clocked in at $736 million by the time it powered up last July.
But he said there have been enough outside reviews to make him think the official $7.9-billion estimate is reliable.
Big power projects in North America generally run 11 per cent over budget, he said. But the Site C bottom line includes an 18 per cent contingency, so it could meet the norm and still come in on budget. The dam would supply a third as much power as the big W.A.C. Bennett dam, but occupy only eight per cent of the footprint, he said. It would last 100 years and the power would get cheaper and cheaper as time goes by, he said.
The officially impartial minister also discounted one of the other options. The government looked at using natural gas to produce new power. It would be only marginally cheaper. But doing that on the scale needed would involve giving up on the legislated clean-energy requirements. The law would have to be repealed and that would encounter significant public opposition, he said.
Natural gas could provide ancillary power for the LNG projects, but that's about it.
The other option is building more independent power projects of the kind that now dot the wilderness. They are privately owned operations that feed into the grid under long-term contracts.
Bennett said they're taking "a very hard look" at that option. Costs in that sector are coming down, but Bennett said prices would have to be assured, and include all the interconnection costs and transmission costs involved in bringing multiple remote generators on line. There are also extra costs incurred in firming up the supply, since it's only intermittent power.
The one aspect of Site C where Bennett's favourable outlook vanished is the First Nations angle. Some of those closest to the dam adamantly oppose the project, and Bennett conceded that's not going to change.
"We're not going to get to a point soon where they will all support it ... They're not going to change their opinion about the project."
The most he could hope for is continued engagement on the benefits and opportunities open to aboriginal interests if the project goes ahead.
If aboriginal rights emerge as one of the dominant issues, and they are already well up on the priority list, it would work against the dam and in favour of more independent power projects. Several First Nations have equity stakes in IPPs and Bennett noted they are a steady stream of revenue for some bands that go on for decades.
Environment Minister Mary Polak said earlier that natives don't have a veto over such projects. That assertion might be tested if they pull the trigger on the dam.
