This time of year always puts us in mind to reflect on the year gone by and to wonder what comes next. I have thought a lot over the year about the differences between Canada and the United States and the complexity of political leadership. Watching Barack Obama and Stephen Harper craft and execute their political agenda is a lesson in understanding the distinct institutional structure, ideology and political culture that shape our two countries.
President Obama came to power with such incredible promise. The call to change and the spark of youth and promise upon which he rode into the White House left many expecting big things. I think we all wondered if the expectations were too high. He could be forgiven, I suppose, for a less than spectacular first term in office. The economy was in terrible shape when he started out and he ran afoul of the neo-liberal rhetoric that had overtaken most of the world from the 1980s onward: everyone on the right and the left was complaining that government was too big and that taxes were too high. Obama did manage to pass healthcare reform which was an outstanding feat in a country resolute on the idea that personal responsibility is the hallmark of liberty. His win was short-lived and the mid-term elections of 2010 punished him by producing a Republican led House. For a while, the Affordable Care Act hung in legal limbo but finally the Supreme Court deemed it constitutional. Yet Obama's single most important achievement is being overshadowed by web glitches and by the fact that young people do not appear to be signing up for health care in the numbers that are required to make the plan work. As we head into 2014 and the last three years of his presidency, there is a lot to do to shape his legacy: comprehensive immigration reform, action on climate change, increasing the minimum wage etc. As a president his legislative agenda is restricted by Congress and particularly by the Republican House. A president gets eight years to make a difference. That may sound like a long time but, in political reality, eight years is boiled down to a few months between elections. Moreover, the president is subject to strict checks on his power imposed by their Constitution. I am not sure if the American public is as deeply divided ideologically as the Congress would make it appear but under these current conditions Obama will likely have a very challenging New Year.
The Canadian prime minister on the other hand does not have a limited term in office. On Feb. 6, 2014 Stephen Harper will have been in office for eight years. Recently he repeated his pledge to lead the Conservative Party into the next election. A prime minister's legislative agenda is somewhat constrained by the House and the Senate but he wields so much more power than a president to move bills into law. In Canada, it is the court of public opinion that is more likely to restrain a prime minister's power to shape domestic policy. Over the next few years Mr. Harper will likely try to extend Canada's reach as an oil producing and trading nation. This mission will put him at odds with many Canadians who do not want further expansion of pipelines and tanker traffic. I wonder whether this issue will determine what type of legacy he leaves: environmental policy may be the Achilles heel of Canadian politics. Mr. Harper's legacy is likely to be shaped by whether or not he can sell the idea that the economy and jobs are worth the risk of potential irreversible ecological damage. Canadians have been drawn to the Conservative message of economic growth and low taxes but if a protest culture arises as a result of decisions that will be made on pipeline development then Canadians might be swayed in another direction. So, Mr. Harper will enter 2014 framing out the Conservative Party's platform for the 2015 election. If he has anything to prove I think it is that he can lead the party to a victory over the Liberals and particularly over Justin Trudeau.
While it may seem sometimes that politics is simply a cult of personality the truth is that domestic policy is shaped by institutions, ideology and political culture. And that's Politics 101 for 2013.
