Bruce Strachan
Right Side Up
As 2010 comes to a pretty good end, it's time for a fearless attempt at a number of 2011 predictions. For openers, the economy outlook for Canada in general and B.C. in particular, looks reasonably cheery.
Our export lumber market is growing, copper prices are surging while the pulp and paper sector is showing strength, particularly in the last quarter.
That's the predictable stuff. However, nailing down the whirling dervish outcome of the British Columbia political scene for 2011 is a crapshoot of the first order. The Chaos Theory applies as much to politics as it does to mathematics. In B.C. politics, it's the Butterfly Effect complete with erratic flight patterns and nanosecond attention spans.
First to the Liberal leadership. This one has all the makings of an intricate thriller with twists and turns, sub-plots, treachery and intrigue.
Currently - and according to recent polling - former minister Christy Clark is in the lead and for a number of reasons. She's attractive, she has name recognition - thanks to her open-line radio show - and she is not in anyway connected to Gordon Campbell's inept introduction of the HST, although she is on record of supporting the tax.
However, Clark has a few problems. Through her brother and her ex-husband, she is allegedly connected to the insider-information leaks during the BC Rail/CN Rail negotiations. In politics, perceptions looms as large as reality and this issue could become troublesome for Clark.
As well, Clark's record in cabinet is not that strong, resulting in little support from her former Liberal caucus colleagues. This is a critical factor since MLAs can exert considerable influence at party conventions.
Clark is also calling for a quick general election if she's elected party leader. In this era of fixed-election dates, a suicide move for sure, but Clark says she needs a seat in the Legislature. This isn't ringing true, as Gordon Campbell has said he would resign and give Clark the opportunity to run in his Point-Grey riding if she were elected party leader.
The polls have Kevin Falcon in second place. He looks strong and has a number of caucus colleagues on side, including Rich Coleman, a popular and influential member of cabinet. Falcon has a few problems, he's seen by many as being too much to the right for the coalition-based Liberal party and he was in cabinet when the HST was introduced.
Next in line for the Liberal leadership is George Abbott. Abbott has a solid record and he has a number of MLAs on side, including John Rustad. He represents a rural area and he's a middle-of-the-road populist.
Running well, but as back markers, are Mike de Jong and Moira Stilwell.
My fearless New Year's prediction - a tight race and a coin-toss between Clark and Falcon. But, if there is a final ballot with Clark trailing, her supporters could break and support Abbott for an up-the-middle win. For those of you who study the dynamics of leadership races, this is the Stephane Dion effect.
Over in NDP land, it's far too early to tell what will happen when the party faithful come together Apr. 17 to elect a new leader. The party's best shot at forming government would be to elect a middle-of-the-road leader who shows balance and a solid understanding of the market economy. Someone like former leader Carole James. But that's not too likely to happen. It seems moderation is not their thing.
More likely this time out, the New Democrats will go to one of two extremes. Either an over-top labour leader who's hell-bent on destroying the B.C. economy, or a raving socialist who wants to tax anything and everything that shows the slightest indication of making a profit. Moderates like Mike Harcourt or Carol James don't last long with their supposedly democratic brethren.
Whatever happens though, B.C. politics in 2011 is going to be considerably more exciting than the sour negativity of 2010.
I want to close the year with a quote from Vanoc CEO and former Prince George resident John Furlong, who was picked by The Globe and Mail as Canada's nation builder of 2010.
When the Games ended, Furlong said, "I believe we Canadians tonight are stronger, more united, more in love with our country and more connected with each other than ever before."
A great thought to take into 2011.
All the best for a happy and prosperous New Year.
