I find talking about the university system a little uncomfortable. After all, it pays my salary and I have vested a large part of my life in British Columbia's universities.
However, the recent trend in government advertising around economic growth at both the provincial and federal level is a little disheartening and shortsighted.
It seems to focus on the notion that we need more trades training as opposed to higher education. It seems to be saying that we need more plumbers and electricians and pipe welders and a host of other trades.
There is no question that all of these trades are important. I can't imagine our lives without tradespeople. Indeed, our economy would ground to a very quick halt if all of the tradespeople in the country were to set down their tools one day.
But while we need plumbers and electricians and pipe welders and so on, we also need people with a host of other skills. Doctors, lawyers, nurses, managers, accountants... the list goes on and on. We need all sorts of skilled people for our economic health.
Which is why this focus on trades training seems to be a little shortsighted.
It focuses on only one aspect of the oncoming skills shortage. The changing nature of our demographic distribution in Canada means that we will need millions of people with skills in all sorts of professions - not just the trades - if our economic prosperity is to continue.
This was pointed out by CIBC Deputy Chief Economist Benjamin Tal who analyzed the Canadian Labour Market and concluded: "This labour market mismatch is big enough not only to reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, but also to limit the growth potential of the labour market and the economy as a whole."
Mr. Tal goes on to identify 25 job groups that have shown signs of consistent skill shortages with the most significant shortages in the health-related occupations, the mining industry, advanced manufacturing and business services.
Further, the 25 groups showing signs of skill shortages together account for 21 per cent of total employment in Canada.
"One-fifth of the Canadian labour market is currently showing signs of a labour shortage" according to Mr. Tal's analysis.
He goes on to say: "The average unemployment rate of this pool of occupations is just over one per cent and their wages are now rising by an average annual rate of 3.9 percent."
In other words, we need psychologists and social workers, counselors and clergy. Human resources managers are in demand as are doctors, nurses, dental technicians, pharmacists, dietitians, and medical technologists. And yes, we also need underground miners and oil and gas drillers.
We need a lot of people with a lot of skills in a lot of professions. And from a purely selfish point of view, many of these professions require a post-secondary education at a college or university.
So, why are both the provincial and federal government emphasizing trades training? Why are we seeing advertisements for apprentice shipbuilders?
An unkind view would be that they would like us all to simply become employees working for corporate Canada with little prospective beyond the next pay cheque.
However, that is a little too much like a conspiracy theory for my liking. Personally, I don't think it is that complex. I think it has something to do with who Prime Minister Harper listens to.
StatsCan has analyzed the ratio of unemployment-to-job vacancies on a provincial basis in June 2011 and June 2012. This is takes into account all unemployed and is a three month average.
When you look at the data, Alberta has a ratio of 2.8 and 1.6 in the two years, respectively. Yes, in Alberta, there are barely enough unemployed to cover the existing positions. Growth is, well, not in the cards.
The numbers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are almost as good (1.9 and 3.4 for June 2012) but Canada as a whole had a ratio of 5.3 unemployed-to-job vacancies in June 2012. B.C., by the way, was at 5.5 in June 2012.
In other words, Alberta is struggling to find enough people with the right skills sets to fill the jobs that it has. Perhaps the Prime Minister is being influenced by the province and the constituency that he represents into thinking of this "trades shortage" as a national problem.
To bring this issue home, though, the BC Liberals have analyzed our provincial labour market demands. Yes, we are going to need a million new workers over the next decade. And yes, the largest percentage - 42 per cent - will be skilled labour jobs requiring some post-secondary education.
But an almost equally large percentage - 36 per cent - will require a University degree. Maybe it is time to start advertising for history majors and psychology undergraduates before the skills shortage in this country limits our potential for growth.
