Russia's recent threat of a pre-emptive strike against missile defence systems in West Europe came as a complete surprise but should be taken seriously because this situation has happened before. For those of us who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, it's dj vu all over again.
When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989 and communism faltered with a final dissolution of the USSR (and Warsaw Pact) in 1991, most people in the West believed that the Cold War was finally over. But is it?
The added, unilateral cancellation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty (1991) by the West left Russia vulnerable to first-strike possibility and this has made Russia both nervous and angry.
With the West's present War on Terror in full swing and its determination to keep its friends close and enemies even closer, the installation of anti-ballistic missiles (ABMs) in West Europe was assumed to be a "given", but the West may have badly misread their cues from Russia, especially from Medvedev and Putin. And, as a result of deep mistrust on both sides, a new "Cool War" is brewing.
The placement of ABMs and medium-range nuclear missiles in West Europe - right on Russia's doorstep - is not going over very well in Moscow. Although NATO and the West have assured Moscow that its missiles will not be aimed at them, this has not appeased them. It is well-known that any medium-range missiles aimed at Middle East targets can easily be reprogrammed to eliminate new targets - Moscow, for example - if required.
Should tensions grow again between East and West and reach red-alert levels, missiles in Europe could be reassigned targets in Russia to take out their first line of defence. This is neither acceptable to Russia nor will they allow the situation to continue to jeopardize their national security.
Russia has been duped in the past (the 1939 Non-aggression Pact with Germany), which eventually cost them 20 million dead, so they will not allow this to happen again. The situation today with medium-range missiles on their doorstep capable of reaching Russia's capital and wiping it out with one bomb is too risky.
In addition to this, the proximity of ABMs in Western Europe will have the additional capability of shooting down Intercontinental Ballistic (ICBM), which will all but neutralize Russia's nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. In effect, the West will have neutered Russia's ability to defend itself, which is totally unacceptable to Russia's military.
It also reminds us that if one doesn't heed mistakes of the past, those mistakes are certain to be repeated. A quick look back at 1962 reminds us of the missiles in Cuba that threatened America and brought the world to the brink of the Third World War. As each day, hour and minute passed, many believed that it may be their last.
The situation was eventually resolved and the danger passed, although those of us who experienced this event in history certainly must have aged several extra years. In the West, the media portrayed it as a victory for Kennedy with Khrushchev backing down for a U.S. promise never to invade Cuba, but in reality there was more to the story.
In the late 1950s, America had placed medium-ranged, nuclear ballistic missiles in Italy and Turkey capable of reaching and destroying Moscow. In retaliation Russia simply countered their move by placing medium-ranged missiles in Cuba with the ability to reach Washington D.C. and other large, American cities. The move was simply tit-for-tat military brinkmanship.
Has no one learned from the last nuclear stand-off?
