Heading into the first English televised debate, way back in the dog days of August, early in the 2015 federal election campaign, one of Stephen Harper's spokesman joked that if Justin Trudeau "comes on stage with his pants on, he will probably exceed expectations."
That arrogance and condescension towards the Liberals in general and Trudeau in particular ran through the entire Conservative camp.
"Just not ready," their ads said.
Harper dismissed him as "Justin," not even referring to him by his surname.
NDP leader Tom Mulcair was no better. He boasted of his experience and superior debating skills. In that first debate, however, Trudeau not only didn't break under Mulcair's badgering, he successfully pushed back. Not only were Trudeau's pants on, but so was his helmet. He was in the game and playing to win. In the end, he kicked Harper and Mulcair in the pants so hard that both men are likely finished as party leader.
The Conservatives and the NDP thought they were fighting each other to form government and they thought the Liberals were fighting for their survival.
Voters thought otherwise.
The Conservative brain trust thought a long campaign would bleed the NDP and particularly the Liberals of the little money they had. In short, the Tories thought they could buy the election, with a massive marketing effort and a powerful and pricy organizational commitment.
What they didn't count on was all of that extra time for voters to consider the parties, their platforms and their leaders. The longer they looked, the more they found both Mulcair and Harper lacking.
Mulcair was not the leader in waiting he so desperately was trying to project. Worse, the harder he tried, the more difficult it was for voters to see him as prime minister and the slide in the polls was on. Then Mulcair couldn't even hold on to his own supporters. As the "Anybody but Harper" effort picked up momentum, the NDP's support started to drain towards Trudeau's Liberals.
As for the Conservatives, their flaw was their leader. Harper was a lightning rod of discontent, even for people who still favoured a conservative government style. Instead of stepping down two years ago, Harper tried to become the first prime minister since Wilfred Laurier to win four consecutive federal elections. Voters who usually vote Conservative couldn't go all the way to the NDP, particularly with Mulcair at the helm, but going Liberal was suddenly a viable option again.
Trudeau was more than just a parking spot, however, for the votes of disenchanted Conservatives and NDP supporters desperate to keep Harper out at any price. Campaigning on vision is high risk but also high reward. The risk is that Mulcair and Harper would have successfully punctured that vision but neither did. Instead, the vision took hold.
The TV spots were marketing magic. Trudeau walking up the down escalator was corny but it seemed to match how many voters felt in today's economy. Trudeau's "I'm not ready" walk through the park with the Parliament buildings portrayed him exactly as he wanted to be seen - the reasonable alternative to Harper. And then the triumphant conclusion to the TV trilogy, the "Ready" spot, with the roaring crowds, the vibrant candidate projecting energy and passion and the one liner that the Canadian economy doesn't depend on Stephen Harper, it depends on Canadians.
The Liberal campaign was diligent, focused and well-organized, both around its leader and around its candidates. The proof that the traditional Liberal ridings in and around Metro Toronto were returning to Trudeau was seen Saturday night, the final weekend of the campaign. Trudeau wasn't campaigning there because he already knew he had won there. He was in Western Canada instead. But Harper was in Toronto, chumming with Rob and Doug Ford, a cynical play for support that angered supporters elsewhere in the country.
Trudeau made a lot of promises but so did the others. Trudeau also bought himself some wiggle room, which the others did not. He said he will run three consecutive deficits to get the government back where it needs to be. Expect those deficits to be higher than expected and he'll blame Harper for leaving the books in worse shape than he told Canadians.
Ready or not, there's four years of Trudeau ahead for Canada.
Or as the recently departed Yogi Berra so eloquently put it: "it's deja vu all over again."
