Mark Twain is often credited with the quote: "There are lies, damn lies - and statistics."
The history of that quote is actually much more convoluted. For example, Twain attributed it to Disraeli who is supposed to have said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics." but historians have scrutinized Disraeli's writings and never found the saying.
In any case, it is a popular sentiment that statistics can say pretty much anything that you want. That numbers can be made to lie. I feel sorry for the statisticians of the world because that is certainly not their intent.
Over the years, when writing about the economy, I have often had critics say something to the effect of: "I don't care what your numbers and facts say .... I know the truth."
But how are we to judge an objective truth if we don't have the numbers and facts to back it up? I would contend the numbers don't lie.
So with that caveat in mind, I would like to look at the economic progress of B.C. over the past three decades. Specifically, the period 1982 to 1991 when the Social Credit were in power, 1992 to 2001 when we had an NDP government, and 2002 to 2011 with the B.C. Liberals.
For data, I am going to quote from the Ministry of Finance's "2012 Financial and Economic Review". Note that this is a document compiled by the staff at the Ministry of Finance but signed off by the Minister of Finance - a member of the BC Liberals. It should be free of biases and is available online.
To put things in a broad perspective, consider our population growth over those three different decades.
In the 1980s, B.C. increased from a population of 2,877,000 to 3,374,000 - a change of 497,000. Every year between 1982 and 1991, our population grew an average of around 1.7 per cent per year or by a total of 17.3 per cent based on 1982. Some years, such as 1990, the increase was much higher (three per cent) but other years it was much lower (0.9 per cent in 1985).
Shift forward a decade and British Columbia's population increased from 3,469,000 in 1992 to 4,076,000 in 2001. That is a change of 607,000 or 17.5 per cent. More in absolute terms but about the same percentage change as seen in the 1980s.
Move forward one more decade and the population has increased from 4,098,000 in 2002 to 4,573,000 in 2011, or an absolute change of 475,000 and a percentage change of 11.6 per cent. Not quite up to snuff compared to the heydays of the 1980s and 1990s but a respectable growth in our population. We are not losing people.
This is important on a number of levels. The growth in our population mirrors the growth in our labour force and the growth in our economy. It also drives growth in the housing market. But it places increased demands on the provincial government for services.
Indeed, one of the reasons that governments sometimes end up in deficit situation is because the growth in taxation revenue has not kept up with the growth in population resulting in a lag between revenue and expenditures.
So, how did our economy do during those same three decades?
Under the SoCreds, our "real chained GDP" increased from $79.2 billion in 1982 to $101.6 billion in 1991. That is a growth of $22.4 billion or 28.3 per cent compared to 1982. Our economy, after removing inflation which is what "real chained GDP" does, grew faster than our population for the decade - despite major international financial difficulties.
Under the NDP, the economy increased from $104.2 billion in 1992 to $133.4 billion in 2001 for a change of $29.2 billion or 28 per cent, despite major international financial difficulties. And again, our economy outgrew our population.
Under the BC Liberals, we have seen the GDP increase from $138.2 billion to $167.4 billion. That is an increase of $29.2 billion or 21.1 per cent over the past decade despite major international financial difficulties.
In other words, for the past three decades, British Columbia's economy has been growing by at the same rate, regardless of the political party in office and international monetary difficulties.
More to the point, it has consistently outstripped our growth in population which should mean that we are collectively better off.
Many other indicators in the ministry's report would support this. Our "Personal Income", "Capital Investments", and "Business Incorporations" have all performed well during the past three decades.
But the key point, from an economic perspective, is that it really makes no difference which government is in power.
The argument that we don't want to go back to the "bad old days" of the 1990s just isn't supported by the facts.
The numbers don't lie. British Columbia, on the whole, did very well in the 1990s. One could even make the argument that we did better then than we are doing now.
