Honest debate is critical to any healthy democracy. I do not fault political rivals for formulating arguments that support their causes and counter those that their opponents offer. That back and forth clarifies ideas and allows citizens to better understand their choices when deciding who will lead them. But implicit in this democratic covenant is a commitment to allowing people to determine their own fate through free and fair elections.
Any effort to undermine the voting process is, by definition, undemocratic. And by logical extension, any leader that relies on voter suppression to accrue power forfeits all claims to legitimate rule. On this basis, all sincere proponents of democracy, regardless of where they fall on the political spectrum, should find U.S. president Donald Trump's re-election strategy deeply troubling.
To comprehend this position, one must first understand that Trump realistically cannot expect to win the popular vote this year. Even in 2016, Hillary Clinton earned nearly three million more votes than he did. Since then, Trump has never achieved even a 50 per cent approval rating, according to Gallup. And in national polling averages, he's consistently hovered around 44 per cent. Trump's path to victory in 2020, as in 2016, is only possible because of America's quirky Electoral College. To prevail, Trump must win crucial battleground states, some of which he won by the slimmest of margins the last go-around. Consider that a one per cent voting difference in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016 would have produced a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Whatever your political persuasion, repeating these razor-thin victories in 2020 against Biden will be incredibly difficult. Biden doesn't suffer from Clinton's favourability problems. And unlike in 2016, the Democratic base isn't fractured because of a long, highly contentious primary season. The polling math is unequivocally bad for Trump. FiveThirtyEight.com gives Biden a 90 per cent chance of winning the election. The Economist, hardly a mouthpiece of the progressive Left, says it's 95 per cent.
To be clear, Trump can win re-election by legitimate means. If I had a 10 per cent chance of winning the lottery, I would undoubtedly be stockpiling lottery tickets. But imagine if I tried to improve my odds by preventing others from buying lottery tickets and trying to invalidate lottery tickets purchased by others. That is essentially what the Trump campaign and his surrogates are doing now. They've given up on the idea of expanding their base of political support and instead embraced the strategy of voter suppression to win critical points in the Electoral College.
In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign is trying to intimidate voters by videotaping them as they submit ballots. In Ohio, they're suing to prevent the expanded use of ballot drop boxes. In Florida, where voters in 2018 approved a measure designed to expand voting rights to felons, the Republican-controlled legislature instead made voting more difficult for ex-offenders.
And in my home state of Texas, which is surprisingly competitive, the Republican governor has limited each county to one ballot drop-off site, regardless of population size. To put that in perspective, consider that Bexar County, where my hometown of San Antonio is, has over two million inhabitants. It has the same number of ballot drop-off sites (i.e. one) as Loving County, where less than 150 people live. Are we supposed to believe that it's coincidental that the voting populations primarily being impacted just happen to be Democrat-leaning?
But that's not all. Consider the legal challenges that Trump's campaign says it's preparing to ensure that the election results conform to their expectations. They're actually arguing that not all votes, even if submitted by eligible voters by Election Day, should be counted. Again in Texas, there was an effort to invalidate 100,000 votes already cast in Democrat-leaning Harris County, where Houston is located. Why? The Republican plaintiffs argue that a drive-thru voting process approved by the Republican Secretary of State on account of the global pandemic is unconstitutional.
Imagine if you found out your vote didn't count because the government had decided after the fact that it didn't like how it organized its own election process. And now imagine that this decision overwhelmingly affected voters who, like you, generally do not support the political party in power. Would you consider such interference to be fair and impartial? Would you trust the outcome of an election where the margin of victory was razor-thin? Can a person legitimately win elections under such circumstances? The answer unequivocally is no.
There are many reasons to oppose a Donald Trump presidency. Indeed, there are always the usual partisan left-right perspectives that one can easily find across news media and the internet in general. Instead of rehashing those arguments, I wish to highlight what should be most concerning to all of us: a common interest in preserving public trust in democratic institutions. If a candidate relies on voter suppression to eke out election victories, they forfeit any claims to democratic legitimacy. This is true, regardless of how one feels about their political platforms.
To all who support democracy, particularly our political leaders, I call on you to reaffirm this message loudly and clearly. The unfettered right to vote must remain an undisputed maxim of a civil, democratic society. I recognize that voicing such an opinion requires much political courage, particularly from those who align ideologically with much of Trump's policy stances. But leadership is often about doing what is right rather than what is expedient. The durability of our democratic way of life depends on how you respond to this moment. How do you want history to remember you? Choose wisely.
To everyone else, vote and encourage others to do the same. And remember that in the long run, we're better served by peaceful, democratic transitions of power. A government that suppresses my voice today can silence yours tomorrow. Be careful what you wish for.
-Ignacio Albarracin is an American who relocated to Prince George for work three years ago.
