Shari Green saw the problem coming. Now her successor, Lyn Hall, and the rest of city council have to deal with it.
In August of 2014, the Prince George RCMP floated a plan before Hall, then a councillor running for mayor, and the other councillors, all seeking re-election, to increase the contracted roster at the local detachment from 128 to 135. Since 2009, the city agreed to provide 128 RCMP members but only budgeted for 121.
The numbers game is basic human resources management stuff. Due to "soft vacancies," such as sick leave, parental leave and bereavement leave, and "hard vacancies," jobs that are open but have not been filled, the city could agree to one number and tell the commanding officer at the Prince George RCMP to budget for a lower number.
"Our recommendation is we'll sign a contract for 135 and our expectation of the officer in charge is to manage to a budget of 121," said then city manager Beth James.
Agreeing to the increase in contracted officers from 128 to 135 would allow the management of staffing levels to fill the 121 funded spots, the hard vacancies, by increasing the buffer of soft vacancies.
James warned city council about the "outside, remote risk" that there would be no soft vacancies and the detachment could put 135 members on staff and pass the extra costs onto the city.
People get sick, they have babies, they lose family members. The risk is minimal. Green, however, saw the real risk of a new officer in charge coming before a future city council asking for funding for the full contract amount.
"It's out there - it could happen," she said.
This past Monday, it happened.
Supt. Warren Brown made his pitch to city council's finance and audit committee for seven additional officers. He'd like to see the detachment roster increased to 143 and fill 128 budgeted positions over the next three years, at a total cost of $1.14 million.
Brown is only doing what all responsible managers should do. He is making the case that with more money for more staff he could do an even better job at his core mission. He pointed to Prince George's "staggeringly high" crime rate per thousand people, especially when compared to to other similar-sized B.C. communities. Crime reduction efforts are working but they require poaching of general duty officers to staff them, so more staff are needed. The downtown safety unit is down to 10 members, from a high of 16. The domestic violence unit is down to one member from its original two.
All worthy investments but mayor and city council have to look at the big picture before making a decision. That picture depicts a steady and gradual decline in violence crime in Prince George that has been happening for the last 20 years, just like it has across Canada, but property crime continues to be a major concern.
The challenge for the keepers of the public purse is how to decide what is the right amount to devote to policing. Setting police budgets based on crime rates creates a moral hazard. If politicians are willing to spend more when crime rates are higher, not only is there no incentive for officers to reduce crime, it's in their long-term interests to foster criminal activity. The reverse is also true. Local government shouldn't reward the RCMP for a job well done reducing crime rates by slashing their budget and their staff.
When Green made her prediction last August, she prefaced her remarks by stating that "it's not a trust issue." On that score, she's completely wrong. It is a trust issue. Mayor and council are not in the law enforcement business, so they must trust the head of the Prince George RCMP to make recommendations for funding and staff based on needs, not wants. Yet even with those needs, they need to balance them against a lot of other urgent needs for tax dollars, along with a need to keep tax increases as low as possible. There is a case to be made for increased spending on law enforcement, particularly downtown (remember the welcome police presence and foot patrols during the Canada Winter Games?), but there is also a case for urging the RCMP to continue to do its job in Prince George with same number of employees.
City council will decide what to do with the RCMP's request during its first budget deliberation meeting on Nov. 25. Choosing based on community needs is a much more difficult and agonizing process than simply playing a numbers game.
