Bruce Strachan
Right Side Up
This Sunday will mark Prime Minister Stephen Harper's fifth year in office. Jan. 23, 2006, Stephen Harper and 123 of his Conservative Party colleagues were elected to govern a minority Parliament. They were 40-per-cent benefactors of the Liberal ad-scam controversy and a disorganized campaign by then Liberal prime minister Paul Martin.
In those ensuing five years, has the earth moved? Well, in some parts of the world it has, but not in Canada.
Long-serving Liberal MP Ralph Goodale called the parliament of 2010 a year of grinding mediocrity. He's right; although one could easily expand on Goodale's musings and call Stephen Harper's past five years at the minority helm a tedious and tepid journey.
It is in this sobering and muddled context that Canadians face the prospect of a federal spring election. But is this trip really necessary?
Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff says he will defeat the upcoming Conservative budget on the issue of tax cuts to corporations. A Liberal non-confidence motion would trigger an election. Ignatieff has also fired his first campaign volley by asking Canadians if they are better off now than they were five years ago.
Ignatieff is bravely whistling past the graveyard on this one. In the first place, it's a disingenuous question. In 2008 the U.S. subprime disaster blew up the world. Any attempts at pre-2008 economic comparisons which ignore the global financial crisis and recession are an insult to our intelligence.
In the second place, and in spite of the above, there are a number of five-year factors working in Stephen Harper's favour.
As an example, Statistics Canada reports that Canada is the only member country of the G-7 where real output, private domestic demand, and employment have returned to pre-recession levels. The other six G-7 members are France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The United States and The United Kingdom.
If Ignatieff thinks he can wing an offhand and incorrect economic assumption as a credible election plank, he's dreaming of faraway places. Perhaps he's subconsciously seeking a return to his more comfortable world of academic theories and intellectual novelty.
Meanwhile, back in the nasty world of Canadian politics, Harper's Conservatives have rolled out a series of attack ads. The ads highlight a potential and unsavoury coalition between the Liberals and the separatist Bloc Quebecois. The copy says Michael Ignatieff wants to break up Canada. The ads also hit on Ignatieff's 30-year absence from Canada saying, "He didn't come back for you," rather he's back to take power at all costs so he can raise your taxes.
However, in the cynical and unconvinced world of the Canadian electorate, both Ignatieff and Harper may want to put a damper on their politically induced heavy breathing. A compilation of recent polls shows a spring election would offer little change in the House of Commons seating plan.
According to ThreeHundredEight.com, the compiled data of four major polls shows a trip to the polls would give the Conservatives 135 seats, down from 143, while the Liberals would pick up 98 from their current standing of 77.
Not a knockout for Harper, or Ignatieff. Regionally, the Conservatives are up a bit in B.C., holding on to Ontario but trailing in Atlantic Canada.
All of which gets us back to main question namely, do we really need an election? Or, what do we need to know now that we don't already know?
It seems Michael Ignatieff is itching to go, if only to get into the fight and win - not too likely, or lose and get out, which is more likely.
Stephen Harper knows he'd be returned at least as a minority prime minister, but is that any reason to inflict the cost of an election on the Canadian taxpayer? Is this about political ego or good government?
It must be ego. We last went to the polls in 2008, it proved nothing. Three years down the road, little has changed. Grinding mediocrity may be boring, but the record shows it works.
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NDP MLA Adrian Dix has announced his entry into the NDP provincial leadership race. He's a brave man. His policies are pro-labour and anti-business. He's way to the left in the NDP scheme of things and the record shows he was closely tied to a few of former premier Glen Clark's political misadventures.
The provincial Liberals would be well advised to ask Dix to stand tall and run on his record while discreetly but generously supporting his leadership campaign.
