This is an edited version of a column that first appeared in the Dec. 9, 2005 edition of The Citizen. A decade later, another B.C. Stats population estimate shows Prince George has 637 fewer residents. The problem and the symptoms persist to this day.
B.C. Stats reported this week that Prince George's population continues to decline caught many by surprise, but a look at the city's demographics explains how the city can be enjoying new housing starts and construction activity while still losing residents.
The popular conception that Prince George is a young town has become a myth over the past 20 years. In 1986, the largest segment of the population was between 25 and 34 years old. For the past three years, starting in 2002, the biggest age group in Prince George is now people in their 40s.
This change has been happening for years. The last time residents in their late 20s made up one of the largest segments of the population was in 1990. In 2004, there were more people in their early 50s living in Prince George than residents between 25 and 29.
The school district's population peaked in 1997 and decreased for six straight years before posting a small increase in 2004, according to B.C. Stats. Meanwhile, the city's population continued to age. Despite the declining number of residents, the group aged 45 and up rose steadily. There are 25 per cent more people 55 and older living in the Prince George area now than there was 10 years ago.
Consolidation and modernization in the forest sector during the late 1990s cost thousands of people between 25 and 40 their jobs. While seniority protected older workers, younger employees were the first forced out. They took their children and fled for greener pastures north, east and south of Prince George.
As a result, there are about 20 per cent fewer people in Prince George in their early 30s than there was a decade ago. Following the North American trend, this group is also having fewer children, which is why the number of children under 10 has fallen even faster. Those numbers still aren't picking up, meaning we likely haven't seen the last of school closures and that updated maternity ward at Prince George Regional Hospital may have been a poor investment in the short-term.
The aging population can largely explain the current surge in construction and housing starts. After a decade of steady decline, the number of residents in their 20s has been slowly increasing over the past three years. Thanks to low interest rates, favourable local home prices, a growing economy and helpful financing from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., this age group is buying and staying, when 10 years ago they were selling (if they could) and leaving. Meanwhile, many of the folks in their 40s and 50s, in the prime of their earning years, are looking for new living arrangements now that the kids are gone for good and the housing market remains attractive in price.
Frightened by the high home prices in southern B.C., many residents nearing retirement are simply staying put. Meanwhile, that small but significant group now in their 20s will start having children. Despite that, the long-term prospects for population growth, however, look less rosy.
The inevitable job losses in the forest sector, once the last of the beetle-infested trees are harvested, will again hit workers in their 20s and 30s the hardest. By then, there will be a significant number of employees near enough to retirement to accept buyout packages, but it won't be enough. If the air cargo terminal, the rail port hub, the OSB plants and other proposed diversification projects are slow getting off the ground over the next few years, there could be another wave of families leaving the region in the coming decade.
Without a solid base of young taxpayers, municipal government may find it increasingly difficult to provide services for an older population. That could then prompt an exodus of the more affluent retirees to areas with better housing, medical care and social amenities geared toward seniors.
Prince George needs to transform itself into a community that remains attractive to seniors while both recruiting and retaining young, skilled workers.
