The mayor is wondering how B.C. Stats figures Prince George's population is declining.
"We've had 150 new homes built last year and 200 this year. I wonder who's moving into all these new homes? We've got more police officers and more doctors - and are they considering students? It just doesn't make any sense."
That's not Lyn Hall speaking, however. That's Colin Kinsley reacting 10 years ago when B.C. Stats said Prince George's population had decreased by 678 people, falling to 77,148.
A decade later and the reaction is identical.
"When I take a look at what's occurring in the community - the residential starts in the community, the community announcements that are going to be forthcoming - there is a great deal of activity in the city from an economic perspective," Hall said this week.
"So to hear that we've dropped nearly 2,000 is surprising to me."
As of July 1, Prince George's population was just 71,363, down nearly 2,000 people from the year before, B.C. Stats says. That's a far cry from the population base Kinsley enjoyed and nowhere near the 81,000 that remains on the "Welcome To Prince George" sign at the junctions of Highways 16 and 97. That being said, B.C. Stats says the population of Greater Prince George, factoring in the residential areas outside of city limits, boosts the city's overall population to nearly 84,000, but even that is a decrease of 2,000 from last year.
The population numbers are best guesses, looking at everything from BC Hydro connections to the number of local residents with a B.C. Care Card. It is a snapshot of the community, as opposed to a full and accurate picture.
But that doesn't mean it's wrong.
Real estate sales and prices are not connected to population. If that were the case, Vancouver would have at least 10 million residents.
Housing starts are not connected, either. Gone are the days when five or six member households were common in a 2,000-square foot house. One and two-member households in executive homes more than 3,000-square feet in total size are far more common now. More and bigger houses with fewer people in them certainly matches what home builders and real estate agents are seeing on the street.
The best way to look at the B.C. Stats population estimates is to look at Prince George over the last decade and to look at Prince George's numbers compared to the rest of the region. The story being told there is painfully obvious: except for blips caused by price spikes in resource commodities, the population of central and northern B.C. is slowly and steadily declining and it has been for decades.
In 2015, the populations of the Fraser-Fort George Regional District, the Bulkley-Nechako Regional District, the Cariboo Regional District and the Peace River Regional District all decreased, as did the numbers in most of the communities and unincorporated areas of these regions.
Looking back in time, the numbers are even more dramatic. While Prince George has been fairly steady at about 75,000 before the 2015 results, the rest of the regional district has been emptying out. In 2001, Mackenzie had 5,397 residents but in 2015, it has just 3,499. In 2001, Valemount had 1,195 residents, in 2015, it had 955. In 2001, McBride had 719 resident, in 2015, it had 577. The population in the unincorporated areas of the region was 16,155 in 2001 but just 14,883 last year.
Backing up even further and this trend is happening not only across Canada but around the world. Rural areas around the planet are being abandoned as more and more people flock to large cities. On a global scale, this trend didn't start three decades ago but three centuries ago with the Industrial Revolution.
There are massive forces at play when looking at the population trends of Prince George and the surrounding area, forces that frustrated mayors and concerned residents can do little to counter.
