In the run up to another provincial election, the question of confirmation bias will simmer lightly in the background.
Will people get engaged with the political process and talk to the individual candidates about their position, views and aspirations or will they simply vote for their party because that is who they have always voted for?
Will they look at the data underlying campaign ads or will they simply accept any opinion offered at face value if it comes from someone on their side of the aisle?
Democracy is predicated on an informed populace making an informed choice between two (or more) clearly defined options. But it gets murky when the choices are not clear and the populace is not informed.
Confirmation bias was evident in the last U.S. presidential election.
The Donald went around telling his supporters what they wanted to hear. He affirmed their beliefs, blaming immigrants for their woes, threatening foreign powers with trade sanctions and promised to get everyone their jobs back.
It is what his base wanted to hear. Indeed, it is what they think is going to happen and nothing can persuade them from this vision, even when the attempted repeal of the Affordable Care Act fails.
I don't want to rehash the American election in this particular column. This was just an example of an electorate hearing what they wanted to hear. But I can't forego mentioning that Donald Trump seems to think Canada is part of the United States.
The proof? In his announcement last week about the Keystone XL pipeline, he stated the pipeline will reduce American dependence on foreign oil. Gee, isn't that oil coming from Canada?
"Appealing to the base" is political shorthand for telling your people what you think they want to hear. In our provincial election, the B.C. Liberals have staked out the economy as their territory.
We are seeing government commercials telling us how well the provincial economy is doing - the best growth in Canada, more British Columbians working than ever before and all despite international turmoil.
We are also starting to see campaign ads focused on the economy.
Premier Clark telling us how good things are. The NDP telling us how bad we have it.
Each is appealing to their respective base. Each confirming what they think their voters already believe.
The B.C. Government ads go further telling us the government is doing something about housing.
Grants for first time home buyers and social housing units built for seniors all sound promising and are meant to paint the government as caring and concerned. But is anyone on the political left believing this stuff?
Certainly the advertisements are intended to reinforce the views of right wing voters.
"We are doing enough" is what the ads are really saying.
Similarly, the NDP advertisements are intended to reassure everyone that the NDP will not bankrupt the province and that they are the party that cares about the little folk - small business owners, single mothers, low income earners, unions, etc.
Their campaign is intended to confirm the belief the NDP are fighting for the little guys.
They are socially, environmentally and fiscally responsible. That is what they think their base wants to hear.
So what will be the results of the election if the parties only appeal to their bases? If they only confirm the biases the electorate already have both positive and negative?
If we remove the 2001 election from the analysis, as it was an outlier, then the B.C. Liberals have pulled 44.1, 45.8, 45.8, and 41.8 per cent of the popular vote since 1996. The NDP in those same four elections have had 39.7, 42.1, 41.5 and 39.5 per cent.
Put in a slightly different way, the B.C. Liberals average 44.4 per cent of the vote and the NDP 40.7 per cent.
In three out of four of these elections, this was enough for a B.C. Liberal majority government. But more important is the relative stability of the vote. Neither side is making any inroads with the base of the other party.
In part, I would suggest this is because the messaging by both sides is intended to confirm the biases of their own base. The NDP keep telling their base they are good and the B.C. Liberals are bad and the B.C. Liberals say it's vice versa. But neither is persuading anyone to change camps.
Indeed, for the 14.9 per cent of voters who don't vote for either party, their belief that the system is rigged against them is confirmed with each election.
It is unlikely anything major is going to happen in the next few weeks to upset this balance of power.
The parties will confirm the beliefs of their respective bases.
Without a game-changing approach, the relative percentages of popular vote will not likely change much and neither will the governing party.
