A little bit of bad luck can go a long way in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.
After just one race into NASCAR's 2013 playoffs, two drivers have dug themselves holes that will be difficult bordering on impossible to overcome over the next nine events.
Neither Dale Earnhardt Jr. nor Joey Logano finished last week's marathon Chase opener in Illinois through no fault of their own and although one "did not finish" won't completely sink their championship chances, it leaves them absolutely no room for error the rest of the way.
Both Logano and Earnhardt were victims of mechanical failures on a day when weather delayed the start and interrupted proceedings for over five hours. Neither are within 50 points of championship leader Matt Kenseth and making up that ground will require a combination of great cars, flawless driving and perhaps some of that bad luck wafting over towards some of their competitors.
Take Sunday's Geico 400 as an example. Of the top 12 finishers, 10 were Chase contenders. If that holds the rest of the way through the Chase, even nine straight top-five finishes might not be enough for Logano or Earnhardt and since they only have one win between them so far this season, it doesn't seem likely either will be able to rattle off a series of victories and the bonus points that go along with those wins.
Logano or Earnhardt could get lucky and some other Chase contenders could have their engines blow up, or have a tire go down or get caught up in one of the inevitable multi-car wrecks that will take place when the scene shifts to the wild track in Talladega, Ala. on Oct. 20. But asking the racing gods for help is no way to secure a championship.
At the opposite end of the standings, Kenseth has shown he's the man to beat the rest of the way. The top seed coming into the Chase, Kenseth took the checkered flag at Chicagoland late on Sunday night to add to his lead.
Although there are still six drivers within 25 points of the leader, Kenseth has been dominant on the intermediate tracks this year and four of the final nine races are on tracks which are 1.5 miles (2.4 kilometres) in length.
Kenseth's mid-season slump mirrored the period when Toyota was struggling with engine reliability, but a series of strong results leading up to the Chase combined with Sunday's win indicate both driver and manufacturer are peaking again at the right time.
Kenseth, Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson of Hendrick Motorsports are the overwhelming favourites at this point in the Chase, but the top three drivers could be pushed by the likes of former champions Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch, if either can find a way to get into victory lane a couple of times down the stretch.
All those chasing Kenseth have one thing working in their favour this weekend, the driver of the No. 20 Toyota has never won in a Sprint Cup car in New Hampshire, the site of Sunday's Sylvania 300.
If he breaks that 27-race winless streak on Sunday, Kenseth could start to drive away with the title before the Chase reaches the quarter-pole, but if one of the challengers is victorious the race for the title could back on.
