The good news ends at the city limits.
The rejoicing at Prince George City Hall and at the offices of local real estate agents and home builders over the 2016 census results are short-sighted and ignore what's going on to the south and west of the city.
Prince George's population grew to 74,003, according to the 2016 federal census, up 2,029 or 2.8 per cent from 2011.
Outside of Prince George, however, the Cariboo, the Nechako Lakes and the Bulkley Valley are emptying out, more than negating Prince George's isolated increase.
The "population change in Canada's populated areas by census division, 2011 to 2016" map that ran with a story in The Globe and Mail lays it out in stark terms.
The light green showing Prince George's modest population hike has two long red ribbons emanating out of it, one stretching down to Cache Creek and the other running all the way to Hazelton.
Prince George's growth and the declining rural population is simply part of an ongoing national shift to urban centres. For a regional hub like Prince George, however, the declining populations of Williams Lake, Quesnel, Vanderhoof and Burns Lake is of serious concern. The residents of those communities shop in local stores, attend CNC and UNBC, receive treatment at UHNBC and travel through the Prince George Airport. Fewer regional residents means less regional business in Prince George.
Yet that's just the opening chapter of an increasingly depressing Prince George story.
As the rest of the census results roll out this year, that will become abundantly clear. For starters, the residents of Prince George and the entire region are getting older at an unsustainable rate. The working-age population in the area remained at the same levels in the 2006 and 2011 census, the school-age population declined by six per cent and the 65-plus population grew by 25 per cent. There is no indication, based on updates in the intervening years from B.C. Stats, that the 2016 census will see this trend alter course.
Then add in closing sawmills (due to the decreasing annual allowable cut across the region, brought on by the mountain pine beetle epidemic), cancelled resource development projects (New Prosperity mine, Northern Gateway pipeline) and other proposed projects with uncertain timelines, such as liquefied natural gas pipelines.
Seen in the broader context, those census numbers are a shallow victory of little long-term consequence. Worse, they actually mask an increasingly troubling outlook for Prince George's future. If the trends of an aging population and a decreasing number of rural residents continue, future city councils and business leaders will have far more to worry about than whether the census population numbers are accurate.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
