Tuesday, Quebec voters put an interesting spin on how they wanted to be governed; they voted for checks and balances as well as putting the political brakes on socialist largesse and separation. As an issue - and a sidebar issue at that - Quebec sovereignty has 28-per-cent support, so flogging that horse didn't make a lot of sense in terms of political dividends.
Nevertheless, Wednesday morning, Quebecers woke up to a minority Parti Quebecois, a horrific event at the PQ victory celebration and a brand new fiscally conservative face on the block.
The final results are intriguing to say the least and mark a new lurch in the seemingly never-ending quest of what Quebec really wants to be.
However, there are some messages in the Quebec election for all politicians. First, in trying for his fourth win, outgoing Liberal premier Jean Charest should've realized that while Canada doesn't have defined term limits, there are still limits.
We'll call it the Huggies rule, where political leaders, like diapers, should be changed on a regular basis and for the same reason.
Second, it would seem a majority of Quebecers are seeking some semblance of fiscal responsibility. The left-leaning Parti Quebecois with 54 seats is very much in a minority position with the outgoing Liberals still holding 50 seats and the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec picking up 19. The left-wing and separatist Quebec Solidaire Party won two seats.
The political dynamic of having Liberals and CAQ in the majority will give incoming PQ premier Pauline Marois fits when she attempts to introduce her first budget. With a staggering debt of $253 billion - over 50 per cent of GDP - Marois has to address the unsustainable spending practices of low university tuition and heavily subsidized day-care programs. No easy task for a socialist government, but a failed budget vote in the National Assembly would trigger an election and following the results of Tuesday the PQ knows it can not coddle its way to an electoral majority.
The new Quebec government also faces a fiscal credibility problem. During its previous run as the party in power, the PQ saw Quebec's credit rating downgraded. Unless there's some prudence demonstrated on the part of the PQ, it could happen again. It's also instructive to note that the National Bank of Canada, a bank with its core business in Quebec, had its credit rating downgraded at the opening of business Wednesday morning. On the downgrade, Bank of Montreal analyst John Recaussel cited an uncertain political environment.
The third issue facing Quebec and the rest of Canada is the question of greater powers to the province. During her campaign Pauline Marois said Quebec wants control over Employment Insurance, broadcast regulation and cultural programs. It is expected that Prime Minister Harper will say his position as PM is to insure a strong, stable Canadian economy and not preside over any negotiations that could lead to diminution of federal programs or the breakup of the country.
Given Quebec's sad fiscal predicament, Harper's got a good point. How well he can hold it without causing a political backlash is anyone's guess, but he is an economist, he has time on his side and has a majority position in the Parliament of Canada with only five seats from Quebec. Clearly Pauline Marois needs Stephen Harper more than Stephen Harper needs Pauline Marois.
Plus, I'm sure most Canadians feel Quebec couldn't run a popcorn stand let alone a major program like EI.
Finally - and this is my last kick at the inaccuracy of modern-day polling - but once again the pollsters had a tough time identifying the end result. At issue in the Quebec election was voter volatility and the large number of undecided respondents. The two large Quebec pollsters, Leger and CROP said a poll taken just three days prior to the election showed one out of five respondents were still undecided.
As well, both polling firms had the CAQ in second place and the Liberals in third spot. I've always found the undecided respondent to be the more conservative (note the lower case c) respondent. Accordingly, if you take the undecided count and give 60 to 70 per cent of the figure to the party on the right, you'll be close.
At the end of the day about all one can say about the Quebec election is that it introduces a new yet milder set of machinations to the Canadian political scene. It does not foreshadow the unrest that came with the first PQ election in 1976, nor will it cause economic unrest in Quebec such as the Sun Life head office move to Toronto from Montreal in 1978.
In Quebec the giddiness of the win for the PQ will soon turn to the tough discipline of attempting to govern as a minority. Likewise, Ottawa/Quebec relations will remain cordial but cool.
One last fearless prediction, I'll bet within two years, Quebecers will be back at the polls.
