Government MLAs are heading for the hills in droves, Christy Clark's polls are down and some in the political press are already appointing sitting NDP MLAs to anticipated cabinet posts. Is it really all over for the provincial Liberals?
Could be, but as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'till it's over." And so far it's not over, at least not until May 2013. Two recent items struck me as holding out some hope and a message for the current government; one from a local source and another from the current and supercharged U.S. presidential race.
Here in B.C., Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer recently echoed my distrust of polling citing the recent win of Alberta premier Alison Redford last April. Going in, Redford was trailing and all predictions had her sitting in the opposition benches. When the dust settled election night, Redford's Conservatives had won 61 of the 87 seats in the Alberta Legislative Assembly. Palmer went on to describe the 1983 Social Credit win over Dave Barrett's NDP.
This was the "Restraint campaign," where Barrett campaigned against limiting civil service wage increases. It was our best election. The Socreds were not supposed to win, but we picked up four seats and an increased majority.
In both upsets it was an effective government campaign accompanied by an accident-prone opposition that turned the tide.
Turning south, I've watched both the Republican and Democratic national conventions. The best observation came following former U.S. President Bill Clinton's speech boosting current U.S. President Barak Obama and describing the challenges of the top job. After Clinton's address, a Twitter comment made the national news, with the contributor writing," Bill Clinton should be appointed the Secretary in charge of explaining stuff."
There's a message here for Christy Clark's Liberals and it's this: polls are an indicator of how the electorate feels at any given moment, but a clear and convincing message in the final days leading up to the election can change the electoral mood. People want a reason to vote for a candidate and a party; give them a clear believable explanation of your policies accompanied by a good reason to vote for you and you can win.
As an example, two perceived political problems for the Liberals are the BC Rail agreement and the failed HST proposal. The Lower Mainland media and the NDP continue to make hay out of both these issues and don't expect that opposition to fade. Accordingly, the Liberals have to stop ducking the criticism and tell their story.
The CN Rail takeover of BC Rail has been an enormous benefit for the Central Interior. Thanks to the CN agreement, Prince George has seen the development of a CN Rail inland container port. Completed In 2007 at a cost of $20 million the facility began operations handling 30 containers a week. A recent $3.2 million expansion will see container movement rise to 700 a week. The CN Rail expansion has been equally good for the Prince Rupert economy.
The better - and yet unsung - benefit of the CN agreement has been the establishment of the Northern Development Initiative Trust. Beginning with an endowment of $135 million from the lease of BC Rail assets to CN Rail, the NDIT recently completed its 1,000th project. Over $100 million has gone to those projects resulting in $ 1 billion in capital growth for our region.
But ask anyone in the Lower Mainland - including the Legislative gallery reporters - about the benefits of the CN Rail agreement and you'll draw nothing but criticism and absolute ignorance about the good news side of the CN/BC Rail lease.
Likewise for the generally held opinion of the HST proposal. Sure it was a political disaster; a textbook case in how not to introduce tax policy, but it was a better and more efficient way to collect consumption taxes.
It's dead and gone now, but in the Liberal's defence, outgoing Premier Gordon Campbell lowered the bar in setting the threshold to defeat the HST. As a sidebar, those of you who voted against continuing the HST should note that the sales tax rate will stay at 12 per cent. Had the HST vote been supported the tax would have dropped to 11 per cent June 1st.
Finally, the Liberals have to take a page from countless previous political campaigns and one most recently attributed to former Canfor CEO Jim Shepard. Visiting Prince George last month, Shepard asked if we're better off now than we were 12 years ago following two terms of NDP government.
The answer to this question is a resounding yes. When the NDP was defeated in 2001, unemployment in our area was in the double digits. B.C. had lost its triple A credit rating and the only people in town making money were the moving van companies taking Prince George families to Alberta. In the roaring economy of the 1990s - when even the U.S. had a balanced budget - the only North American jurisdiction in the tank was British Columbia.
In contrast, last year B.C. led Canada in job creation and our unemployment rate is currently 6.7 per cent.
To paraphrase the Bill Clinton admirer, that's the stuff that has to be explained in our upcoming B.C. election. At the end of the day, the Liberals have a good story to tell. The NDP don't and never will.
