In 1859 an English economist predicted that the British Empire would cease to exist by 1900 because they would run out of coal, the energy the empire depended on. Ironically, 1859 was also the year when the first commercial oil well was drilled. Now Todd Whitcombe is predicting the end of oil in 40 years. It's not going to happen.
The end of oil has been predicted for as long as we've been using it, but we just keep finding more. Currently we have 90 years of proven reserves. As well, there are known to be vast amounts of shale oil, up to siix trillion barrels in the U.S. alone. And while oil is considered to be a fossil fuel, there is a considerable body of evidence that it may not be. The abiotic theory of oil formation postulates that it is formed deep in the earths mantle under tremendous temperatures and pressures which then force it upwards through fractures. There has been some success in using this theory to find oil in unconventional rock formations. As well, there have been quite a number of played-out oil fields that have refilled by oil gushing up from the bottom. As former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Yamani once said, "The stone age ended, but not for a lack of stones. The oil age will also end, but not for a lack of oil."
Along with all the other problems associated with biofuels, there is considerable environmental degradation that is being ignored. Vast expanses of tropical rain forest are being destroyed in places like Borneo in order to establish palm oil plantations. Thousands of subsistence farmers are being displaced in places like Sierra Leone so international conglomerates can establish massive sugar cane plantations to produce alcohol fuel for cars, just to assuage the guilty feelings of gullible drivers. A far better idea would be the conversion of landfill waste and sewage into diesel and gasoline by the process of thermal depolymerization which can be done at a cost of $80 per barrel. Instead of an expensive problem, our waste would become a useful raw material. It's estimated that if the US converted all its waste in this manner, they would be able to replace all oil imports.
It's time to eschew climate change fear mongering as the basis for our energy policy and return to science, rational economics and common sense instead.
Art Betke
Prince George
