For political junkies looking for their next fix now that the municipal election has come and gone, look no further than the nomination race for the next Conservative candidate for the federal riding of Cariboo-Prince George.
Bruce Strachan referred to the mayoral election as genteel and this will be the polar opposite of that. If the battle between Lyn Hall and Don Zurowski was regal tennis at Wimbledon, the fight to replace longtime MP Dick Harris will be a back-alley brawl.
Tonight at 9 p.m. is the deadline to become a card-carrying member of the Conservative Party of Canada in Cariboo-Prince George, giving those willing to pay $15 for that card the right to attend the nomination meeting and vote for the candidate of their choice.
For those as cynical as Citizen columnist Nathan Giede, everyone in the riding should get a membership today because the nomination vote won't be just choosing the next Conservative candidate but also the next Member of Parliament. While he could very well be right, there is no such thing any more as a safe seat for any candidate, representing any party, in any riding in Canada.
Giede's argument ignores the reasons behind the success of his Conservative compatriots on the national scene. The Tories won their parliamentary majority in 2011 by all but ignoring Quebec and focusing on suburban ridings in Toronto, long seen as Liberal strongholds. Harper broke through in these ridings by targeting new first-generation Canadians and their families, tapping into their entrepreneurial spirit and their fiscal and social small-c conservative beliefs. The federal Liberals were so busy trying to demonize Harper to their traditional base of wealthy, WASP power brokers on Bay Street that they didn't notice the Conservatives stealing their once-loyal immigrant and multi-cultural base from under their very noses.
Closer to home, just because Harris held his riding for more than two decades is no proof his successor will continue to do so. It's the same thinking that all but destroyed the federal Liberals. Harris took his riding in 1993 from an NDP MP in a close race. It wasn't love from area voters for Preston Manning or Stockwell Day or Harper that gave Harris all those wins that followed. Rather, it was admiration and appreciation for Harris himself, a hard-earned gratitude from constituents he helped over the years.
A similar argument could be made provincially. Prince George-Valemount could easily have gone to the NDP one or two terms ago without the personal touch of Shirley Bond. She's certainly not the MLA because her constituents worshipped Gordon Campbell and hold Christy Clark in the same regard.
On Saturday, the heavy-spending political machine behind Zurowski was knocked aside by an energetic Hall campaign of broad-based support across the political spectrum that worried more about shaking hands than cutting cheques.
If the winner of the Conservative nomination for Cariboo-Prince George thinks he or she can just book their accommodations in Ottawa, with the tough sledding in the rearview mirror, they could be in for a horrible shock next fall, when the federal election is expected to occur. So much can change so quickly in politics and a year is an eternity, especially when the trial against disgraced former Conservative senator Mike Duffy is slated to start in early 2015.
City councillor-elect Jillian Merrick showed best of all that someone can start a campaign for political office with few friends and little money, then build grassroots support on the election trail. Should the Liberals or the NDP field a bright, articulate, tireless campaigner in Cariboo-Prince George that has some community connections, impresses skeptical voters and builds momentum, the history of this riding as a Conservative stronghold could come to a sudden and abrupt end.
If it happens, it will be a shock only to those with too much faith in the way things have always been.
