The Ukraine is at a crossroads.
The free world must help it choose the right road - the road to democracy. If it does not, then Mr. Putin may well get more than he ever hoped: the Crimea for his warships, and the people of Ukraine for his (further) economic exploitation. But how can Ukraine become a democracy while it is so perilously close to internal collapse? The answer is legitimate economic opportunity and amnesty for those who have benefited from kow-towing to Moscow.
To address the latter requirement, people who have benefited from terrible governing (but never directly harmed others themselves) can be turned violent if they are threatened with the accusation of treason and the humiliation of show trials. The elites who helped Moscow and bullied their own people by shutting down opposition both inside and outside the government must be given the opportunity to leave Ukraine without harassment. Only those who truly pulled triggers on political enemies and free thinking Ukrainians must be brought to account; but even these should be a small number that does not threaten to break the country along ethnic, economic, or political fault lines.
However, even being as careful as possible with political adversaries will mean nothing to average Ukranians if they cannot buy food and other necessities. The countrys economic state is grave to say the least; corrupt politicians, mob-businesses, and artificial market prices must all be undone if the country is to be a prosperous new member of the free world. This adjustment will be painful; one can imagine that those who benefited economically from the chaotic state of affairs will be hard pressed to accept consistent taxation, lower profits, and policies that protect consumers. But the hope and prosperity of future generations is at stake, and one must remember that it is hard for a nation where all people have legitimate and secure economic opportunities to go to war with itself. To ensure peace, the West must be prepared to offer the expertise and the money required to get Ukraine through this transition.
But what if the unspeakable happens, and Mr. Putin sends in his military to help set the stage for a coup that benefits him? Let there be no misunderstanding: the West will have to support free Ukrainians with military aid, either open or covert.
The free world is afraid of poking the Russian bear, and this fear is well founded: that grouchy bear has nuclear weapons and plenty of manpower. But unlike most failing states, Ukraine is on the doorstep of the Western world, namely that of the European Union. The EU symbolizes the high cost of peace and economic freedom; millions of civilians and members of the military have made the ultimate sacrifice on that continent during the last 100 years so that future generations might have a better life. These casualties will have been in vain if Mr. Putin is allowed to invade Ukraine without resistance. And it will send a message to tyrants everywhere: the West is no longer standing up for freedom and democracy abroad, proceed as you wish.
In sum, I would invite those of you who are praying for Ukraine to pray for the leaders of the free world as well. Yes, Ukrainians need heavenly strength in this dark hour, but so do her allies who as yet are reluctant to rally to her cry.
