Last Friday, a day prior to our municipal election, a friend of mine said, "Either Dan Rogers will squeak by or Shari Green will win with a good majority."
My friend - who has enjoyed a long string of municipal election wins - was right, or at least as right as one can be with that type of qualified opinion.
As it turned out, it was a big win for Green, a substantial loss for Rogers, and at the end of the evening, an interesting result to analyze.
How does a rookie one-term council member defeat a seasoned and, until now, popular municipal politician?
In contemporary politics there are always two prevailing factors: issues and personalities. Issues are cold and clinical, the stuff policy wonks and number geeks drool over.
Personality comparisons introduce a more subtle appeal - is the candidate more attractive, better looking or possessing stronger leadership qualities? Those are the intangibles, but they count. Both elements were at work last Saturday.
First, to the issues.
The Citizen editorial in Monday's paper, correctly identified Green's successful effort to change the light-industrial tax rate as one of the elements contributing to her decision to run. But there was a lot more to that story.
In the context of municipal government procedures, it was a Herculean effort to stop what Green saw as a job and investment-killing attack on a significant sector of our business community.
Green's opposition didn't begin until fourth reading of the budget, which typically gets a pro-forma pass. In municipal budgeting, the heavy lifting happens well before final reading. Those of you who watched that night know Green sought and achieved unprecedented relief for the light industrial base in the small hours of the morning.
For the number crunchers, we'll give Green 800 votes over Rogers on the light-industrial tax-rate issue.
The second electoral factor had to be the Kin ice rink question - should the city build or renovate? At council, and after a valiant effort, Green lost this one. But in the end it was a political win.
The recreational skating community campaigned for Green and, to paraphrase the Bard, Hell hath no fury like a hockey-mom scorned.
We'll give Green another 800 votes for her work to find a better deal for the city and our skaters.
Split the vote down the middle, then add the support from the light-industrial sector and recreational skaters and you have 1,600 votes, which was Green's win over Rogers.
That's the cold, clinical look at Green's success - two identifiable issues culminating into hard numbers and a ballot-box win for Green.
Throw in the double-hit utility tax surprise and it's easy to see the electorate was grumpy.
But there was more to last Saturday's results, and it was the personality factor. Green's campaign spent a lot of time - and money - focusing on city council team building and leadership.
At first blush, one would ask, what's the problem? Dan Rogers has been around a long time, his record on paper is good - downtown re-development is happening, Prince George is hosting the 2015 Canada Winter Games and we're seeing an increase in private-sector investment.
Yet, in spite of Rogers's record, Shari Green made the claim that public confidence needed to be restored in City Hall and that council was not functioning as a team.
This was seen as pretty tough criticism, particularly from one who ought to know. Green also said the office of the mayor must be more accessible.
Was Green right in her criticism of Rogers's style? And if so why would a seasoned politician like Rogers who had served with Colin Kinsley - a readily available mayor who even kept his phone number listed in the book - be seen as inaccessible.
Only Dan Rogers can answer that question, but Green made her point and it stuck. At least it stuck with a majority of voters, including the industrial-class business sector and hockey moms.
Getting back to my friend and the qualified prediction of a strong showing by Green, it's clear mayor-elect Green caught the momentum of a dissatisfied electorate. It's also clear this is a tough town to govern. Will Green succeed?
I'm betting she will. Anyone who is so in touch and moved by the electorate to pull off a midnight tax reprieve against a mostly intransigent mayor and council is bound to be successful in the long term.
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On a happy note.
The city of St. Catharines, Ont. like so many old Eastern Canadian cities is suffering from a seriously deteriorating downtown. Accordingly, and in order to rebuild the downtown as an attractive place for retail and residential investment, the city has decided to embark on a showcase project.
What's the focus of the St. Catharines redevelopment strategy? It's the construction of a downtown performing arts centre. Will it work? St. Catharines is betting it will. Over to you Prince George City Council.
