For political junkies, every election is a fascinating tale of smart moves, lost opportunities and pivotal moments. For casual observers, however, following federal politics can be as confusing as trying to watch Game of Thrones starting from the Red Wedding. With that in mind, here are five things everyone should be watching for from now until Oct. 19:
1. Harper jumping the shark
The phrase "jumping the shark" was coined to describe the Happy Days episode where the Fonz jumped a shark in a cage while on water skies as a gimmick to boost ratings. The stunt backfired horribly, speeding the show's decline and eventual cancellation. Fonzie is cool but jumping a shark in a cage while on water skis is just too cool. To this day, jumping the shark describes something or someone whose best-before date is up and does something crazy to prove it. Putting the metaphor on Stephen Harper begs the question if the child tax credit and an extra-long election as the economy slides into recession are ridiculous tricks to lure voter support from a character who suddenly doesn't look like he's the cool, steady hand on the wheel of the Canadian economy he's been telling everyone.
2. Money, money, money
With likely more in the campaign war chest than the Liberals and the NDP combined, the Conservatives are hoping their deep pockets and a long election will give them the edge, both through an expensive advertising campaign through traditional media and in the trenches with well-funded riding offices, rich data on voter preferences and targeted pitches to voters. The results are mixed on the value of expensive campaigns, but every candidate for every party would prefer the problem of too much money over too little money. Cash flow could turn what looks like a close race into another majority for the Conservatives.
3. Trudeau taking big risks
The federal Liberals, once the natural governing party, now find themselves without an obvious identity, led by the son of an iconic but divisive former prime minister. It's irrelevant whether Harper made Canadians more partisan and more ideological or whether Harper was a product of that change but a basic left-right, two-party choice, as already seen in numerous provinces, including B.C., leaves no room for Trudeau and his party to navigate. As a result, Trudeau will have to swing for the fences, trying to hit a home run during a signature moment in the campaign that separates him from both Harper and the NDP's Tom Mulcair. The problem with political risk is that, like sharp jumping, it can make the candidate look silly and irrelevant.
4. Voter fatigue
Along with money, this factor also plays into the hands of the Harper Conservatives. A low voter turnout, brought on by a campaign that just won't end, would favor the "stay with the tried and true" message coming from the Conservatives. Tory supporters need far less cajoling to come to the polls compared to the occasional voter who wants to be part of change. The Conservatives will work hard to dispel the NDP narrative that it's time for new leadership and Mulcair is a capable prime minister in waiting. Part of the way the Conservatives will do that is with a long, dull, boring and endless campaign that will rob the NDP of the national momentum it needs to have a chance at forming government. Put another way, the Conservatives want the electorate to feel as exhausted and disconnected from the process by Oct. 19 as hockey viewers do by the time the Stanley Cup is finally awarded each June.
5. Mulcair taking no risks
Playing it safe by the frontrunner in the polls can suck the life out of a campaign. Just ask Adrian Dix and the B.C. NDP how well that worked for them in 2013. Mulcair's already showing signs of playing not to lose, from his lacklustre campaign kickoff Sunday to his announcement that he will not take part in any televised debate that doesn't include Harper. The federal NDP seem thrilled and ecstatic they're in first place in the polls, instead of projecting the cool confidence of expecting to be the choice of voters. With less money in the bank and no experience fielding a winning campaign, if Mulcair and his candidates don't campaign every day until Oct. 19 like they're five to 10 points behind in each poll, they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and look back at the summer of 2015 as bitterly as Dix and his cohort do at the spring of 2012.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
