Ultracrepidarianism.
The word gets hauled out by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, the author of the hugely successful Freakonomics books, in their latest read, Think Like A Freak.
It means "the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one's knowledge or competence."
There already is an applicable phrase ("know-it-all") but this single word so perfectly sums up political pundits, editorial writers, bloggers, coffee shop philosophers and everyone else who knows how to fix government, end wars and fix all of the other complicated problems of the world. This is what ultracrepidarians do every day.
The word is problematic, however, because it implies an elitist view of the value of opinion. Take elections, for example. Very few voters understand the job of being an elected representative, yet residents all get to give their opinion, through their ballot, of who would be the best politician to represent the community.
Most parents are ultracrepidarians when it comes to childhood education and most patients are ultracprepidarians when it comes to medicine. The same kind of thinking applies to dealing with mechanics, contractors, wedding planners, community planners and engineers, to name just a few.
In other words, people expect a free pass on being ultracrepidarians on numerous issues, particularly the ones that affect them directly.
The trick for everyone is trying to recognize the truly ignorant views that offer no insight, context or perspective into the topic at hand. That, however, takes a little bit of effort.
As other authors have before them, Levitt and Dubner stress that a statistical analysis is usually more helpful than opinion, regardless of whether that opinion comes from an ultracrepidarian or an actual expert in the field.
Take penalty kicks at the World Cup, for example.
The most basic soccer fan up to the most experienced players and coaches all have suggestions on the best path to success, depending on whether you're the kicker or the goalkeeper. As Levitt and Dubner point out, the penalty kick success rate in World Cup matches is already 75 per cent. Keepers leap to the strong side of the kicker 57 per cent of the time and the weak side 41 per cent of the time, which is right in line with the rates the kicker sends the ball to their strong or weak side.
The author argue that to increase the odds of scoring to 98 per cent, World Cup kickers should just boot the ball right down the middle, since the keeper doesn't move at all just two per cent of the time or one kick in every 50.
And when statistical analysis won't do, many authors, including Levitt and Dubner, say the the best way to assess opinions, regardless of who it comes from, is to look at the degree of certainty being expressed. The more certain the person is that they are right, the more likely they are wrong. In fields such as politics and economics, with countless variables, seen and unseen, with the potential to affect outcomes, experts have been shown to be consistently less reliable than ultracrepidarians or basic statistical guesswork (there is a one-third chance that interest rates will rise and a two-thirds chance they will either fall or stay the same, for example).
Furthermore, experts can be wrong because they're actually ultracrepidarians in disguise.
Daytime TV star Dr. Mehmet Oz was taken to task in Washington this week by a group of senators holding hearings on consumer protection. Oz, a cardiothoracic surgeon, has been touting various supplements as miracle pills to help people lost weight. While he hasn't received any money from any of the manufacturers of these products, his proclamations have made him enormously popular on TV and online, while also generating excellent sales of his books and sold-out engagements on the lucrative lecture circuit.
While Oz may have a general knowledge of healthy dietary practices, his medical specialty is operating on people to fix problems in their heart and/or lungs. In other words, he's trading on his expertise in one area of health to claim an expertise in successful treatment methods in another.
Short story is, beware the self-proclaimed experts, especially when they're sure, and take the ultracrepidarians with a grain of salt, especially when they're not sure.
In other words, think with your mind, not your gut.
