As both Les Leyne and I pointed out in last week's columns, governments of all stripes run advertising campaigns prior to an election using taxpayer's dollars.
You can go back even further than the NDP in the 1990s to the "Super Natural British Columbia" advertisements of the 1980s under Social Credit. It is not right - particularly when a government is talking about austerity measures to meet its budget - but every party does it.
Indeed, some parties want to tell us how they are "economic wizards who deserve to get re-elected", to quote Leyne, even when they are not running for election. Just listen to the federal Conservatives advertisement for their Action Plan.
Still, if a government is going to spend our money on their message, it would be appreciated if the message was at least truthful.
A couple of weeks ago, during the Seahawks playoff game, I repeatedly saw a commercial featuring a young women on her way to becoming an electrician. Great image. Great idea.
However, the commercial was marred by the voice over which promised us "1,000,000 new jobs by 2020" and "$500,000,000 invested in skills training".
To put that in perspective, British Columbia's population sits at around 4,254,500 individuals. Not everyone works, though, so the participation in the labour force is only 66 per cent (70.9 per cent for males; 61.2 per cent for females).
That means that right now, there are only about 2,808,000 individuals working in the province. A million new jobs by 2020 would require a huge jump in that number in eight years and a further increase in our population by 1.5 million.
Predicting the future is always a dicey proposition but I am fairly certain that this sort of growth is not going to happen. At best the television commercial is misleading; at worst, dishonest.
In any case, if you do follow up and go onto the WorkBC website, you can find a report entitled "British Columbia Labour Market Outlook - 2010-2020". This is the actual government analysis of our labour market for the next seven years.
It predicts that in the decade from 2010 to 2020, British Columbia is expected to see 1,027,400 job openings. That is where the statistic of a "1,000,000 new jobs" comes from.
But in the Labour Market Outlook, the authors go to great lengths to repeatedly point out that these are not "new" jobs. The majority - some 66 per cent - are job openings due to the demand to replace retiring workers.
Indeed, the authors say "replacement is important for all occupations. It accounts for over half of the total job openings for all occupation groups."
It doesn't matter whether you are talking about teachers, physicians, physicists, or electricians, retirement is going to be a major driver when considering job openings for the next few years.
But that still leaves some 330,000 new jobs, doesn't it?
Surely that is an indication that the government is doing something right?
It might seem so until you look at the historical record for employment growth. Between 1991 and 2001, our provincial population grew by 626,000 and the number of people employed by 413,000. Pretty good for a decade when we were supposed to be struggling economically. Even the 1980s saw better employment growth.
Obviously, the economic wizardry of the present government doesn't match up to previous records.
The other half of the message says that the government is going to be spending half a billion dollars on "skills training". That is a lot of money.
It also conflicts with a BC Liberal party advertisement, featuring Premier Clark, telling us that the B.C. Liberals are committing to $75 million for "skills training" but that is a whole different story.
In any case, the commercial featuring an electrician would seem to make it quite clear that we should be investing in the trades. And it is hard to argue with that. The Labour Market Outlook estimates that 42 per cent of the million jobs that will need to be filled over the next few years are in the "technical, paraprofessional, and skilled occupations" requiring a college or trade certificate.
Except that number includes a great many jobs that are not in the trades. Indeed, the trades are featured as having the lowest growth rate of all of the major job classifications.
Again, according to the Labour Market Outlook, the professions in high demand in the province are physicians, dentists, veterinarians, nurses, optometrists, and other health care related professionals, all of which require a university degree. Between 2010 and 2020, 35 per cent of the projected job openings will require a university degree.
What is the government's response? They are cutting university budgets over the next two years. Not a smart choice for the future of our children.
After all, how are they supposed to compete in the labour market without an appropriate education?
