Defending NASCAR Sprint Cup champion Brad Keselowski goes out every week looking to get the checkered flag, but this Saturday getting a win is more of a need than a want.
Keselowski is looking to avoid the fate of Tony Stewart, the only other champion in the Chase era to fail to make the playoffs the year after winning a title. Stewart didn't qualify for the Chase in 2006 a year after finishing first in the points race.
If Keselowski doesn't drive his No. 2 Penske Ford into victory lane after Saturday night's Federated Auto Parts 400 his dream of back-to-back championships will likely be finished.
Even if he wins on Sunday, Keselowski isn't guaranteed a spot in the Chase. He heads into the weekend 15th in points, behind both Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Newman in the race for the final wild card spot. That means Keselowski needs to win and finish far enough in front of both Truex and Newman to overtake them for a wild card spot, all the while hoping that another one-win driver doesn't fall out of the top-10 and into a wild card position.
Technically, Keselowski could get himself back into an automatic Chase spot by moving back into the top-10 in points, but that would require an implausible scenario including a very strong finish and at least five other drivers crashing out early.
Heading into Sunday's final regular-season race, seven of the 12 Chase spots have been filled. Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth have all made it in on points, while Kasey Kahne is assured of at least a wild card berth with his two wins. Should Kahne move back into the top-10 after Saturday's race that would open up a second wild card spot.
Only a disastrous early exit could derail Dale Earnhardt Jr., who needs just a 32nd place finish to get into the Chase on points. Keselowski's teammate Joey Logano is fairly secure - he's in for sure with an 11th-place finish or better and has a win in his back pocket for wild-card ammunition.
That leaves Greg Biffle and Kurt Busch, currently ninth and 10th in points, on the bubble - but Biffle's one win could come in handy should he fall into a wild card spot.
Former champion Jeff Gordon needs to race his way in on Sunday, but he's only six points back of Kurt Busch, a manageable gap if Gordon puts up a solid result and gets some help.
Keselowski's problems go deeper than his inability to reach victory lane so far this season. Back in April his Penske team was handed severe sanctions for running with rear-end housings that failed to meet NASCAR's standards. Although the points penalties were subsequently reduced on appeal, it left the defending champion with a deficit to overcome right of the gate.
The 25 points Keselowski lost as a result of the violation would sure come in handy now as it would leave him just three points out of the top 10.
Getting a win Sunday isn't out of the question for Keselowski. He's won eight times since joining the Sprint Cup series full-time in 2010, including five victories last season alone.
But he's never won in a Sprint Cup car at Richmond, something that will have to change Saturday or NASCAR will begin the countdown to crowning a new champion.
