Last Wednesday evening, I participated in an event called Elections 101 at the Bob Harkins branch of the Prince George Library. Neil Godbout, the managing editor of The Citizen, and I thought that an evening in which we could have a more interactive platform for discussing and explaining the complex American electoral system would be fun and hopefully informative.
I had a great time. There were so many great questions. Today, I hope to fill in some of the other things to watch for on Tuesday.
Last week, I framed out how the Electoral College works (and I need to make a correction when I said that Florida has 27 electors - it has 29) but I thought I would add some nuance to the discussion by explaining some of the potential issues that could impact the outcome of the election.
When you turn on the news and pundits are discussing the Electoral College map there are usually states that appear to already be designated as red or blue states (red for those that are predicted to vote Republican and blue for states that are predicted to vote Democrat).
Those designations are based on the historical propensity of a state to vote a certain way and upon polls that show a statistically-significant lead and so have been designated as a win in either of the two camps.
Of course, these maps are only showing predictions and are not confirmed until the votes are counted, but mostly these past predictions and polls demonstrate enough of a significant pattern to assume a particular outcome.
Other states will show on the map in a colour other than red or blue when the outcome is uncertain. On election night everyone will be waiting to see who can win 270 electoral votes which is the magic number for a win of the presidency.
This year the reds, blues, and uncertains on the electoral map have shifted around and as we head into Tuesday there are some things to watch.
I haven't written about third party candidates but Trump and Clinton are not the only people who are running for president.
There are others on some or all of the ballots, depending in which state one resides.
For ease, I am going to mention three: Jill Stein of the Green Party, (who is on the ballot in 45 states with three states allowing write-ins on the ballot); Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party (who is on the ballot in every state); and an independent named Evan McMullin who is only on the ballot in 11 states (although his name can be written in in many states).
Normally, third party candidates are not a threat to the two main candidates but this year these three people may become spoilers if they succeed in pulling votes away from the two top contenders and thus shift a state away from an expected winner.
The most interesting person in the mix is McMullin.
He is from Utah and he launched his campaign fairly late in the process.
He cannot win the Electoral College but what he can do is potentially win Utah.
McMullin is a Mormon and he has significant credentials as was pointed out by Martha Raddatz in his interview on ABC's This Week.
While he said that he doesn't speak for all Utahans, he posits that they have "real issues with [Trump's] lack of decency..." among other failings.
I mention him because if the Electoral College vote is very close between Trump and Clinton, and if McMullian wins Utah, he could keep either of the two candidates from getting to 270.
This is a very unlikely scenario but if that happens I will need a whole column to tell you the process for selecting the president.
Another place that will be on the radar is Maine. They only have four electoral votes, but they are not a winner-take-all state.
Two votes go to the winner of the popular vote in the state but the two congressional districts are given to the winner of each of the districts.
As I write this column, it looks like one of the districts is leaning Republican.
I understand that this scenario only accounts for one electoral vote but at this stage in the race every vote is going to be important.
Polls and pundits can only tell us so much.
The key issue is the getting people out to vote on Election Day and early voting has started in earnest.
One might assume that the rollercoaster ride will end on Tuesday but there is much to come after election night as the U.S. comes to terms with the very divisive campaign that has unfolded over this last year.
