Will Donald Trump win his second term as U.S. president in November?
COVID-19 has taken the wind out of America’s economic sails, unemployment is at Depression-era levels, and his opponent, former Vice President Joe Biden, does well with minority voters. This perfect storm could well ensure that Trump walks as a single term POTUS.
Pollsters, elected officials from both parties, and the media agree that his situation is beyond dire. But, just as in 2016, they are completely mistaken.
I’m happy to remind you that I called it for “The Donald” exactly four years ago this May with six months left in the race. No, Russia didn’t send me an email, nor did I place a Ouiji board over a stack of polls. The empirical data was there for all to see: a kooky old socialist, a school marm, and a loud boaster with an impish smile walk into a state asking for votes. The first offers more government, the second wags her finger at them, the last says we can reclaim greatness.
When it came down to the finger wagger vs. the jaunty bragger, the deal was sealed. In this new race, regardless of the situation in the wider world, the ticket that must be punched on Nov. 3 will have Trump on one side and Biden on the other. Who will America choose: the orange man who has steered the country over four years defying all predictions of doom or the sundowning geriatric senator from Delaware who likes to sniff women’s hair?
My detractors will wander off into using slurs at this point, saying that I clearly digest too much Fox News and am therefore compromised. This from the same pathetic group of losers (to paraphrase the Donald) that let the media misdirect them on Trump’s electability as well as “collusion with Russia,” and are still gorging on their drivel. I can only say go watch the videos of Biden debating fellow nominees or speaking with voters - the man is obviously becoming senile.
Even if they try to hide Biden and send out his potential cabinet to campaign for him, this isn’t 1944, with FDR barely alive while his pals and the media make him look great. Recall the short clip that was almost censured and seized by the Clinton’s henchmen of Hillary’s secret service agents dragging her to an unmarked van after collapsing. This is 2020 - at some point, a 1080p video of Biden’s actual mental state or his barely contained racist views will be put online.
Finally, we come back to the post-pandemic reality. The coronavirus has been an excellent winnowing fork, exposing the incompetence of government as well as the real beliefs of citizens.
There is a spectrum but two camps are clearly forming: one that wants to trust the experts, wait for a vaccine, and continue the shutdown; and the other whose lives were hard before the virus but are now impossible due to the shutdown, so based on loss/gain, they’re willing to take the risk.
The former belong to blue counties and states, the later belong to red ones. Now, using extremely advanced math which requires a pen and a cocktail napkin, tally up electoral votes that either side is unlikely to lose, then look at the remainder: has the environment and culture of these states changed from 51 per cent “can do” to “can’t do?”
Trump has always positioned himself in opposition to the shutdown and letting the virus dictate policy. Certainly, montages of his shifting remarks as the situation evolved are cause for real cringes, even among his fans. But if we are nothing but our consistencies, Trump remains the stalwart voice calling for America to get moving again as soon as possible. That is what voters are going to remember going to the polls in November - with or without any masks.
Thus, I’m calling it for Trump, six months from election day - again.
God bless the United States of America and their bigly, tempestuous, orange tanned, Commander-in-Chief.