NDP leader Adrian Dix is poised to become the 36th premier of British Columbia in less than four months.
It's not a lock, thanks in large measure to the recent Buddhist monk-like self-immolation of the B.C. Conservative Party under leader John Cummins, opening a bigger pool of right wing voters for the ruling B.C. Liberals. But even with the Conservatives fading, the NDP, at 46 per cent, is 15 points ahead of Christy Clark's Liberals among decided voters and leaners in an Angus Reid poll released last week. The Nate Silveresque political prognostication site Threehundredeight.com is predicting the NDP will pull in a comfortable majority of 57 seats, the Liberals will form the opposition with 27 and one lucky independent will return to the legislature.
Clark doesn't have to pull a Redford just yet. And there are no sure things in the land of the Canucks. But the reality is, all things being equal, 12 years of Liberal rule in this province will end on the evening of May 14.
Or, for those of you still huddling under the banner of free enterprise, Adrian the Dix and his socialist hordes are riding hard for Victoria. Prepare yourself for an Orange Dawn.
For those people, Dix, with his slight tweediness and professorial air, probably resonates with the same terrifying vibe as Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Opposition leader has done his best to overcome the stigma or what NDP Nova Scotia premier Darrell Dexter calls the "mythology" surrounding his party, all but dressing up as the Monopoly man to convince B.C. voters and firms he's not the Hugo Chavez of Vancouver-Kingsway. In an effort to prove he's business-friendly, Dix even rang the opening bell of the Toronto Stock Exchange in January to mark the return of the embattled company Catalyst Paper to public trading.
But, while he's doing his best to assure people of his fiscal credentials, he is still the man who was the right and left hand of NDP premier Glen Clark. He is not going to run a Liberal government with NDP stationary and he's said just as much; B.C. is going to have to adjust to life under an unabashedly left-wing administration.
On Enbridge's $5.6 billion Northern Gateway pipeline project, for example, he's been clear --within a week of taking office, he'll be terminating the joint review agreement between B.C. and the federal government and conducting a provincial examination of the controversial oilsands proposal. While that won't kill the project, it will deliver another head shot to the already shaky legitimacy of the ongoing federal review and will further complicate Enbridge's path to approval.
Dix's move will also affect the oft-ballyhooed slate of industrial proposals for this region, alleged to amount to $70 billion in incoming revenues. The experiment with one, overarching review will be over -- Dix wants a provincial review process, in addition to whatever the feds do, which he promises will contain a robust environmental component and aboriginal consultation. While he hopes that will ultimately mean more projects will be approved -- by restoring confidence in the process -- prospective investors will see more bureaucracy, more costs and, worst of all, more uncertainty.
Dix's stance also foreshadows more government in general and more active government, whether it be insuring the province buys more local products, crafts a strategy for attracting overseas trade, curbs raw log exports or has a better idea how much usable wood is in the forests. He is unashamedly in favour of more taxation, particularly on the corporate side. He's also not shy about saying more money needs to be spent on education, with a focus on skills training, and health care.
Short term, increased government spending could actually be just what the economy needs as the world teeters toward another slowdown. But the concern is the NDP and Dix will keep making promises they can't keep -- especially considering his close public sector union ties -- and won't be able to keep the deficit down mid- to long-term.
That said, there's no doubt his party made the right choice with Dix -- with his wonkish, self-effacing Mr. Roboto style, he's definitely odd enough to be premier of B.C. Indeed, he is shaping up to be a kind of anti-Campbell, a Gordon of the left. From the glimpse he offered in his 2011 convention speech, his catchphrase is going to be "You betcha!"
As in, you betcha he's going to change B.C.
