As Jim Prentice campaigned to be Alberta's next premier last June, he touted himself as the best candidate to help build Enbridge's controversial Northern Gateway pipeline project.
His pitch, reported by The Canadian Press, was modest with a side of downplay. Prentice may be the only person capable of lining up all the necessary consent required to see the currently politically toxic pipeline through to completion. At the very least, his ultimately successful bid to become the top Tory in B.C.'s eastern neighbour breathes a semblance of hope into a project that is alive only on paper.
Right now, the pipeline is officially in stasis after Gateway president John Carruthers announced early this month the $7.9 billion proposal will not be completed by 2018. Carruthers told Reuters the company wants to secure additional support from aboriginal communities along the 1,177-kilometre route linking Alberta's tarsands with B.C.'s North Coast and energy markets beyond. According to the CBC, there are 45 aboriginal communities, 27 of them in B.C., along the route, many vehemently opposed to the pipeline under any circumstances; Enbridge acknowledges of those 27, only 11 have come to some terms with the pipeline firm. In the wake of the Supreme Court of Canada's Tsilhqot'in decision, which makes recognizing aboriginal title and securing First Nation consent more crucial than ever for any economic development, Enbridge and its backers lack the good will required to gain acceptance from those aboriginal communities and the legal footing that could override that reluctance in court.
The only practical way Northern Gateway will ever be built is if First Nations along the route change their mind. So Enbridge tapped, as an honest broker, a former federal Conservative environment, industry and aboriginal affairs minister with extensive dealings with B.C. First Nations to reboot a badly-botched consultation process; the man the firm chose for this Sisyphean task was Jim Prentice.
Grand Chief Stewart Philip quipped to the Vancouver Observer that Prentice took on the sorry task of reviving Alberta's Tories in the wake of ex-Premier Alison Redford's waxen-winged fall from politics because trying to renovate relations between Enbridge and First Nations was like "beating a dead horse." But Art Sterritt, executive director of B.C.'s Coastal First Nations hinted at a softer tone to the Globe and Mail when he said, after Prentice won the Tory race: "There's nobody better suited to working with First Nations out of Alberta that we've seen yet. His understanding of what our issues are and his ability to move industry as opposed to what other people have been able to do" could open the door for more negotiating.
That's the main hope Prentice offers to Northern Gateway - he's got a foot in a lot of doors, from industry to government to First Nations. He was formidable as Enbridge's hired gun; now he has the full faith and credit of the province of Alberta behind him along with a provincial Conservative party desperate for him to take them past the Redford scandals. He is a former Harper insider and frontbencher, counting, among others, UNBC alum and current Industry Minister James Moore as a close friend; his ability to talk to the prime minister could be crucial in extracting the compromises necessary for the pipeline to proceed. It's unclear what his relationship with B.C. Premier Christy Clark is, but his bona fide progressive credentials on the environment would appeal to her more centrist side and, at the very least, he will be an improvement from the prickly relations she endured with Redford.
He will need all of those relationships, all his ministerial experience, all of his legal acumen if he is to come to a creative solution to the Enbridge stalemate. And therein lies the problem. Prentice has most of the necessary tools required to bring all sides of the debate to the table but then what?
There's no obvious solution to Northern Gateway. To be crass, money is not an issue - there are gobs of it available should a deal hinge on cash. Trust between the sides is the sticking point - in terms of securing from government and Enbridge the regulatory and technical safeguards required to assure First Nations the pipeline can be operated with the least degree of risk - but it is manageable. But it's still hard to see what anyone, even Prentice, could offer First Nations along the route who simply do not like Enbridge and do not want a bitumen pipeline crossing lands they claim as their own.
One possible way to tease out that Gordian knot is offering recognition of title and land to an aboriginal government in exchange for consent on Northern Gateway. Such a deal would require all the creativity Prentice could muster to get B.C. and the federal government onside
The other problem is time. While Prentice could deal with either Justin Trudeau's Liberals or, less likely, Thomas Mulcair's NDP, he enjoys the strongest ties with the current prime minister and his cabinet; the federal Tories face an election next year. Prentice faces an even narrower political window; he told the Calgary Sun that Northern Gateway will be an 'early priority' of his government and he faces a 'year of heavy lifting' on the file. Having ascended after Redford's collapse, he lacks a popular mandate and Alberta's Tories face a grim trip to the polls; progress on Northern Gateway, and the prospect of freeing Albertan bitumen from its captivity in American markets, could be essential for his election chances.
Jim Prentice offers Northern Gateway a lottery-ticket chance of success. It's a slim hope but that's better than earlier this summer when there was no hope for the pipeline at all.
