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Pipelines will overshadow federal election

Oct. 19 is supposed to be federal election day. Give or take a few days, it is nine months from now. The parties are starting to position themselves for their campaigns. Each is staking out their ground.
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Oct. 19 is supposed to be federal election day. Give or take a few days, it is nine months from now.

The parties are starting to position themselves for their campaigns. Each is staking out their ground. But it is going to be difficult for any party to lay clear claim to any political territory.

The number one issue will likely be pipelines. The federal Liberals have entered into an agreement and purchased the TransMountain pipeline with a promise to get it built. This is in Alberta's best interests and, if the Alberta government's advertising is to be believed, Canada's best interests as well.

But the B.C. NDP are opposed to the pipeline - especially if it is going to terminate in the busy Vancouver harbor. There is major opposition to having tankers befouling the waters of Burrard Inlet. Further, increasing freighter traffic through the Salish Sea will severely impact wildlife and threaten the southern orca population.

Then there are the First Nations along the route, which bring into play a whole other level of government. There is a great deal of uncertainty for all pipelines across the province as companies are not sure who they are supposed to be negotiating with or how to get to consensus and a settlement.

For the federal Liberals, this leaves them in an awkward position. They can assert domain over projects in the nation's interest and build the pipeline, thereby appeasing Albertans but annoying British Columbians and potentially ending up in litigation with First Nations. Or they can shut down the pipe dream and disable the economies of the Western provinces, which means they will suffer the wrath of prairie folk and many northernwea. Either choice leaves someone unhappy.

The situation is not any better for the Conservatives nor the NDP.

In the case of the Conservatives, if they maintain their "pro-business" stance, they will anger the segment of B.C.'s population which is concerned about the environment. Such a stance will reinforce the belief Conservative politicians are all in denial with respect to climate change is happening. But their stance will serve them well east of the Rockies.

For the federal NDP, if they adopt the provincial stance and oppose the pipelines, they will be hung with the moniker of being anti-business and anti-progress. All of the potentially good-paying union jobs related to construction of the pipelines would vanish. Not something which will garner them support.

On the other hand, for the NDP to come out in support of the pipelines would put them in conflict with the strong environmental faction of the NDP party. They would risk losing votes to Green Party candidates who can stand firm on the pipeline issue and economic progress be damned.

But it isn't just pipelines across B.C. which are a source of contention.

Quebec Premier Francois Legault provided a wish list for the federal parties in the coming campaign. While claiming not to want to support any party in particular, his list of demands include having no federal party advocate for an oil pipeline from Alberta through Quebec to Atlantic Canada or to Eastern Canada, period. In his view, the social license for such a project is simply not there. This, of course, puts him at odds with Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer who has already stated his support for reviving the defunct Energy East pipeline proposal.

As Quebec is likely to be a major battleground in the coming election and with 78 seats available, appeasing the population is good politics.The Liberals will need to increase the 41 seats they have if they are going to be losing seats in Alberta and/or British Columbia. Since they only took four seats in Alberta in the last federal election and are unlikely to make any inroads into the Conservative party's stronghold, perhaps they don't matter. As for B.C., the Liberals did well with 17 out of 42 seats but these are now at risk, depending upon pipeline politics.

The one disadvantage the Prime Minister has is that he must keep pushing the pipeline agenda. All of the other parties can sit back and watch as he squirms his way through the minefield. They don't have to do anything other than criticize.

So there is no doubt the issue of pipelines will remain a hot topic for the foreseeable future.