With two serious contenders for mayor having publicly announced their intentions last month, how Don Zurowski and Lyn Hall spend their summer will help shape how the fall campaign and the race to Nov. 15 will unfold.
For Team Zurowski, that has involved some early phone polling to get a lay of the land on where, geographically and demographically, his support in Prince George lies and the degree of support his opponent has and where it lies. It's not meant to be deeply accurate. The outcome of the poll is a snapshot and to point at some trends to pursue. In other words, the work is happening behind the scenes to lay the ground work for a more public campaign down the road.
It seems to be the opposite so far from Team Hall. At this point, Hall seems to be everywhere there is a public gathering with more than 50 people, particularly if it's an event for a good cause and/or to show community support and engagement. He's stepped up his social media presence, particularly on Twitter, which has evolved from his opinion on sports to a cheerleading soapbox. No local politician owns Twitter like Shirley Bond but Hall seems to be making an effort to follow in her footsteps when it comes to being seen and being active. In other words, Hall is hitting the campaign trail running.
Both tactics have their strengths and weaknesses.
For Team Zurowski, spending the summer drafting a comprehensive 75-day campaign plan that will kick in Sept. 1 and carry the candidate through to voting day could be smart. The playbook should involve the creation of a concise election platform of top three or four speaking points for the casual voters, a more detailed policy document for either the one-issue voters or the careful followers of municipal politics, the look and style of the campaign and the candidate, the potential wedge issues and motivating the voters to the polls on election day.
The disadvantage for Team Zurowski is that while their campaign is being organized, their opponent is out campaigning, making himself visible and approachable. While it's always helpful for candidates to campaign as if they're behind, no serious contender wants to do it for real. Zurowski has been out of the public eye for the past six years but at this point it's Hall, the elected official since 2001, who has been front and centre. Still, that's not a bad thing for Zurowski.
Hall talked during his announcement of his intention to run for mayor that he wants to be the candidate (and mayor) that people will approach, even when they see him at the store, with questions and comments. Through his busy social calendar, he's working to portray himself as the engaged, man-of-the-people candidate.
The risk for Team Hall is overexposure. While some may argue that a politician can never be in front of the people too much in election season, the danger comes from voter fatigue in the form of "here comes that guy again who's running for mayor." For more than a few voters, overzealous campaigning smacks of personal ambition and needing to be in the spotlight. Furthermore, high visibility and availability increases the odds of the candidate saying and/or doing something in public that they'll regret later, like introducing themselves and not remembering the three previous introductions.
It's early days but it appears Zurowski plans a sophisticated campaign, quite similar to his 2008 effort, with a highly organized, scripted and careful march to election day, trying to win targeted segments of the electorate. In contrast, Hall seems to taking a more casual, charismatic and grassroots approach, winning support one handshake, one conversation and one vote at a time.
Each approach has its merits but we won't know until November which one will pay off.
