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Budget tries to restore social safety net

Last week, the Finance Minister Bill Morneau and his Liberal colleagues tabled their first federal budget. It contained the bad news everyone was anticipating.
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Last week, the Finance Minister Bill Morneau and his Liberal colleagues tabled their first federal budget.

It contained the bad news everyone was anticipating.

Instead of only the $10 billion deficit arising from a commitment to infrastructure spending made during the election, the total deficit is predicted to be $29.4 billion.

Strangely enough, the size of the deficit didn't really send any shock waves through the financial markets. Corporate Canada has been relatively silent on the subject. Furthermore, a survey conducted right after the budget was tabled indicates the majority of Canadians see the budget favourably, albeit with little enthusiasm.

It almost seems like Canadians have been holding their breath for the past few years and certainly since the Liberals were elected in October.

We all know the Conservatives were shortchanging the country in programming.

Cuts to Veterans Affairs saw offices closed across the country.

Cuts to federal science saw the government abandon the Experimental Lakes Area (it is now being run by the International Institute for Sustainable Development). Cuts to social programs saw increased levels of homelessness and poverty.

The Conservatives seemed to be engaged in a "scorched Earth policy."

They cut funding -- or should I say "taxes" -- to a level where they could no longer afford programs and then used the lack of funds as an excuse to cut the programs.

Any savings were then turned into more tax cuts.

It would seem their motivation was to get government down to the bare essentials -- protecting our sovereignty through the armed forces and border security agencies. Except that is not what Canadians want of their government.

We are a country which generally values our social safety net.

We are a country which will reach out a helping hand to others. We are a country committed to doing right by the First Nations of this great land.

In short, we are Canadians.

So it is perhaps not surprising that most Canadians knew the budget was going to be in deficit. It is going to take time to turn the country around after 10 years of Mr. Harper.

But is the picture really as bad as the budget documents say? Are we really in for multi-year $30 billion deficits?

When Paul Martin was finance minister, he was notorious for painting a bleak-picture - for under-promising and over-delivering on the budget. From 1994 to 2002, under the Liberals, the average deficit was $8.8 billion less than projected in the budget.

A combination of predicting less revenue than received - on average 4.1 per cent - and holding the line on spending meant the government was always able to come out ahead of the game at the end of the year.

There is certainly the feeling among some economists this government may be taking the same approach.

The predicted growth rate in the budget of 0.4 per cent for the economy is well below the 1.4 per cent predicted by various financial agencies.

The budget also includes a $6 billion contingency fund which will be spent if necessary but will more likely end up as a reduction in the deficit.

All told, at the end of the year, with a little prudence and judicious management of the federal books, the deficit will likely be half the amount predicted in the budget.

This is perhaps one of the more interesting aspects of government budgeting. The budget, which is a statement of intent, gets all of the attention - the real time news coverage and editorials - while the year-end statements are glossed over.

And yet what really matters is not what the government intends to spend but what they actually did spend and where.

The opposition, though, can't wait until the end of the year.

They are trying to score political points now.

Rona Ambrose and Conservatives have described the budget as a "nightmare scenario."

Our local MPs ask "where are the job creation strategies?"

The NDP question the prudence of the budget. Tom Mulcair said "I think the smart way to ensure the long-term stability of your social programs is to make sure everyone pays their fair share of taxes, including corporations."

Unfortunately for the opposition parties, their criticisms are not likely to take hold with the general public. Chastising the Liberals for doing what they promised to do in the election isn't going to win a lot of support.

It is going to take a long time to get our economy back to the point where it is both balanced and sustainable. One part of this approach was expounded by Navdeep Bains, Minister for Innovation, Science, and Economic development: "If there's a good idea, if there's a small company in Canada, if there's an entrepreneur that has an idea, I think the government should do business with that person."

In other words, think local. What a good and timely idea.