It's one election and in one province but Brad Wall's third consecutive victory in Saskatchewan this week is bad news for the NDP across Canada and good news for the federal Conservatives and provincial right-of-centre parties like the B.C. Liberals.
Wall didn't just beat the NDP, he crushed them, taking 51 of 61 seats. In the home province of Tommy Douglas, the current provincial leader of the NDP couldn't even win his own riding.
The Wall brand of conservatism provides a path forward for the federal Conservatives. Their efforts to draft him to become the new leader will probably be unsuccessful but just because they can't have the man doesn't mean they can't adopt his model, which is what Rona Ambrose seems to be doing as interim leader.
Wall's approach should come as no surprise in a province so devoted to farming and common-sense values. His conservatism is based not in ideology but in pragmatism. He is a small-c conservative, someone willing to work with anyone, anytime, regardless of their politics or personality, to get results.
In sharp contrast, the response of the Harper Conservatives to the idea of taking in Syrian refugees was to whip up fear about terrorists moving in next door. Women wanting to take their citizenship oath behind a veil aren't real Canadians. A national snitch line was needed for "old stock" Canadians to rat out these individuals and their "barbaric practices." In other words, classic big-c conservative you're-with-us-or-you're-against-us ideology, right down to religion, langauge, where you were born and how you dress.
Right-of-centre parties, both politically and nationally, that start spouting this kind of nonsense as a way to appease the angry part of their base are never long for power. Wall's longevity has everything to do with refusing to have anything to do with the intolerant thread of conservative ideology rooted in fear and ignorance.
Wall did not oppose taking in Syrian refugees. In a province made up of aboriginals and immigrants from the other side of the world who came together only a handful of generations ago, that stance would be silly. Rather, Wall opposed the timetable of the Justin Trudeau government's refugee action plan. Why the Dec. 31 deadline? Why 25,000 refugees? Both the date and the number were hatched in the pressure cooker of a federal election campaign. Wall wanted Trudeau to provide a home for the refugees in a way that was manageable for Canada and Canadians.
That's political pragmatism in a nutshell.
By and large, voters love this approach and reward the politicians and parties that take it at election time. This tactic works particularly well when the electorate is tired of the ruling party and leader. Change is great and pragmatic, sensible change is even better.
Tom Mulcair surrendered this territory to Trudeau, who ran with it all the way to 24 Sussex Drive.
Worked great for Rachel Notley in Alberta, too. Her only chance to win a second term, however, is to remain a progressive pragmatist, to reject the familiar and comfortable socialist ideology of her roots, so loaded with intellectual elitism and anti-capitalist rhetoric. Even then, if the Alberta Conservatives disown their recent past and embrace the Wall method, starting with the right leader, the Notley regime is one-and-done in Edmonton.
The Wall conservative pragmatism is already old hat in B.C. Gordon Campbell pushed the cranky Social Credit conservatives off to the side and Christy Clark has all but eliminated them from the ranks of the B.C. Liberals. The fast track to the back benches and out of caucus would be for a sitting Liberal MLA to speak out against abortion, legalizing marijuana, physician-assisted suicide and any other hot-button social issue.
The Campbell-Clark years will be remembered for their strategic conservatism. The same two B.C. premiers that mercilessly (many would say joyfully) put the boots to public sector unions have also protected huge swaths of environmentally sensitive and valuable lands within provincial parks and have invested heavily in post-secondary education and health infrastructure. B.C. will not pay the lowest minimum wages in Canada under Clark's watch because that looks bad politically and keeping up with the other provinces makes pragmatic sense.
Barring a major corruption scandal, always the killer of any party or politician in power for too long, the hold Clark and Wall have on their respective provinces leaves little room for an NDP resurgence.
