Ok.... so you are probably wondering how it is possible that the NDP did not form the government in the provincial election on Tuesday. Everyone, for over a year, has been saying that the NDP were certainly going to win: the polls, the pundits, and the politicos. I too have been reflecting on this and I will use this week's column to wonder aloud about the possible reasons.
Reason One: The polls were not wrong.
Ok, they were wrong because the NDP did not win; they did not even come close to winning. But my observation about this is, "what if the pollsters' certainty about an NDP win actually influenced the outcome?" One wonders if the confidence level of NDP supporters was not matched by their actual turnout at the ballot box. The NDP's popular vote dropped marginally in this election and you simply cannot win if voters don't vote - even if you are leading in the polls.
Reason Two: The Liberals Had Already Been Punished
Remember a year ago when the NDP was leading (really leading) in the polls, voters were still very angry about the reversal of the promise about the HST. But the Liberal Party had played it smart and allowed the public to punish them in a referendum rather than in an election. B.C. voters love to vote governments out of office but this time it was not necessary. The HST was rescinded and the punishment was doled out - even if the punishment actually hurt the voters themselves. Remember the cost of the HST debacle will be borne by the taxpayers. The fact is that angry Liberal supporters were mollified by the referendum outcome.
Reason Three: The Conservative Party was just a placeholder
Again, a year ago things looked quite different. At that time the B.C. Conservative Party was a factor in the polling results. Some disgruntled Liberals were saying publically, and probably to pollsters when they phoned, that they would not vote Liberal in the next election. They had "moved" to the Conservative Party to find their version of free enterprise and libertarian ideology. But, a year is a long time and the B.C. Conservatives were unable to keep up the momentum. Lots of things got in the way. First, those "movers" realized that they would create a potential vote split on the right and they were not willing to take that chance. Second, the B.C. Conservatives were not able to attract a really viable group of candidates that could run against strong Liberal incumbents with established political machinery. It takes an army to run a successful political campaign and it is really difficult to mobilize a sophisticated political machine including hundreds of really dedicated volunteers.
Reason Four: Even if the Conservative Party had been a potential spoiler, what people say and what people do is not the same thing.
Remember the Wildrose Party in Alberta didn't win either despite the insistence by pollsters, and by extension poll respondents, that the Wildrose would spoil the Alberta election. Let's face it, people get nervous about voting for the unknown.
Reason Five: Young People Won't Be Attracted to One Day Every Four Year Politics
There was a lot of discussion in this election about youth turnout. The problem is that youth have other ways of making their opinions known. There is a lot of chatter on social media and youth who are politically active are likely to be involved in local or international non-governmental organizations. I would suggest that youth voters would more likely be NDP voters and so a "no- show" at the polls by youth would result in "no NDP government."
Reason Six: The Left Split the Vote
Even though the Green Party's popular vote was relatively low, their voters created a split on the left in some ridings that allowed the Liberal candidate to win. This is a perennial problem in our electoral system and this time around it was supposed to happen on the right not on the left. The Greens and the NDP need to figure out how to fix this. (I will analyze vote splitting more in an upcoming column).
Reason Seven: ...
Actually, I don't have a reason seven except to say "that's BC politics for you!"
