Thomas Cheney (March 4) challenged me to provide a coherent alternative theory for global warming. I'm happy to oblige. (Bracketed numbers refer to online citations.)
In 1984 the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature cycle (1,500+- years) which could not be caused by any terrestrial agent was noticed. Cycle shifts were abrupt, sometimes gaining half of their change in only a decade. (1)
Dozens of papers confirmed this cycle (at 1470+- years) and determined it must have a solar cause. (2, 3, 4, 5)
But there is no 1,470 year solar cycle. There are, however, the 87-year Gleisberg and 210-year DeVries-Suess cycles of sunspot activity. Seven of the 210 year cycles and 17 of the 87 year cycles operating together produce an erratic 1,470-year solar cycle. (6)
How could sunspots affect our climate? Henrik Svensmark postulated that sunspots are associated with the suns magnetic field and it, together with solar flares, modulates galactic cosmic ray input to the atmosphere which may cause variations in the nucleation of low level clouds, affecting their reflectivity. (7)
Incontrovertible evidence of a link between cosmic rays and terrestrial temperature variability was discovered in 2001. (8)
In August, 2011 CERN released results of its first study, confirming the theory. (9)
Evidence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle has been found going back a million years and accounts for the climate variations of the past 2,000 years including the Roman Warming, the Dark Ages cooling, the Medieval Climate Optimum, the Little Ice Age, and now the modern warming. Projected forward this pattern suggests we are about 160 years into the next warming phase with a few centuries to go which will be followed by several centuries of cooling.
In 2003 Russian scientists Klyashtorin and Lyubishin identified a recurring 60-year cycle of warming and cooling (most likely related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) superimposed on Dansgaard-Oeschger, subsequently confirmed by other studies. (10, 11, 12)
This cycle accounts for the warming and cooling pattern of the last 150 years of temperature records including cooling 1882 to 1910, warming 1910 to 1944, cooling 1944 to 1975, and warming 1975 to 2001. Projected forward, this suggests we are on the cusp of a slight 30-year cooling after which the warming will resume.
The studies briefly described here account for all past as well as current climate changes either of which the anthropogenic CO2 hypothesis absolutely cannot do.
Citations can be found at https://sites.google.com/site/artbetke/
Art Betke
Prince George
