On paper, Jason Kenney is exactly the right man to unify the Alberta Progressive Conservatives with the Wildrose Party in a rejuvenated right-of-centre coalition to send the NDP's Rachel Notley packing in 2019 after one term in office.
In reality, however, Kenney is another Jim Prentice disaster waiting to happen. Prentice was the Stephen Harper lieutenant and the knight in shining armour brought in to salvage the Alberta PCs prospects heading into the 2015 provincial election. Prentice put that business background to work, cutting a backroom deal with Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith to join forces. Alberta voters showed what they thought about that arrangement by catapulting the NDP into power and making what was left of the Wildrose as the official opposition. The PCs were crushed in a fit of electoral rage.
Except the PCs still finished second in the overall popular vote. Except every NDP seat won outside of Edmonton was the result of vote splitting between the PCs and the Wildrose. Except the Wildrose didn't win a single seat outside of rural Alberta.
The table is set for a PC comeback.
Kenney seems perfect to lead that political resurrection. Despite the fact he's only 48, he's been a federal MP for the last 19 years, going back to the Reform days. He was one of Harper's best and brightest, the architect of the federal Conservatives majority breakthrough. He knows how to craft winning coalitions and how to turn the weaknesses of opponents into political opportunities.
Although he's a Calgary conservative, as Harper was, his social conservative views will sell well in Wildrose country. After his announcement Wednesday in Calgary, Kenney was off to Grande Prairie, currently held by the Wildrose, for an event there.
There are no guarantees Kenney will be greeted with opens arms, regardless of whether it's a Wildrose or an Alberta PC stronghold. Unlike their federal counterparts, Alberta Conservatives are still formally known as the Progressive Conservatives and both words are taken seriously. Based on how urban voters judged their Wildrose candidates, it's clear that Wildrose is shorthand for hillbilly redneck in Alberta's cities. Two of the 10 members of the remaining Alberta PC caucus already said Wednesday that they would not support a Kenney-led right-of-centre reunification with the Wildrose. Kenney's not the problem, the Wildrose and their rejection of progressive values are.
Kenney's move to provincial politics looks like impatience and an unwillingness to remain in opposition. Federal political insiders said he decided to bow out of running for the federal Conservative leadership race because he believes Justin Trudeau will enjoy at least two terms as prime minister. He doesn't feel the same about Notley, particularly if he can come to terms with the Wildrose.
In other words, Kenney is putting his personal political desires over the long-term health of the Alberta PCs. From a strategic standpoint, there is no reason to forge an alliance with a party with little money, few major donors and only rural support, populated by political rookies with little experience in fundraising and organizing at a provincial scale. A well-organized PC ground game to rebuild that trust would serve the party much better in the long-term, except that it could take more than one election cycle to translate into victory.
Kenney's not willing to wait so he hopes he can pull the same stunt Prentice did but not suffer the same political fate. That sounds like arrogance, bordering on confidence.
There is one candidate who wouldn't even need to negotiate with the Wildrose because its members would come running to his side but so far there has been no word on whether Harper would like to lead the Alberta PCs. Meanwhile, the best-known Alberta conservative with rural roots and the ability to drain Wildrose support also won't challenge Kenney but that's because Rona Ambrose promised to be interim leader of the federal Conservatives.
Kenney poses a legitimate threat to a second term for the Notley NDP but that doesn't mean she should worry too much just yet. The right-of-centre bloc in Alberta ripped itself in two for a reason and a patch job didn't work for Prentice. There's no reason to believe Kenney can do any better.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
