Neither rain nor sleet nor snow nor the incredibly embarrassing trial of Senator Mike Duffy will stop the minister of Ffnance from presenting a budget.
Yes, amid fanfare and hoopla - along with a new pair of running shoes - newly minted Finance Minister Joe Oliver presented us with his version of the world of economics.
Actually, that is a little unfair to economists. After all, the government's budget is more a work of fiction than fact but what a great story to be telling just prior to a federal election.
"Economic Action Plan 2015 will create jobs, growth and long-term prosperity. It is a balanced budget, just as we promised, and it cuts taxes for hard-working individuals and families," declared Minister Oliver.
Of course, it is a little short on details. Exactly how it will create jobs or growth or prosperity is still pie-in-the-sky.
As per usual, the Minister called together his economic forecast council and asked what level of growth they predicted for the economy. The council includes economists with the Royal Bank, CIBC World Bank, and the University of Toronto along with 12 other financial institutions.
They came back with a variety of predictions but, on average, an annual growth rate of 2.6 per cent for 2015. They even broke it down by quarters. For January to March of this year, they predicted 2.6 per cent.
What did we actually get? Well, according to the federal government, growth was only 1.2 per cent. Further, there is every indication that growth will be comparable in the second quarter - somewhere around 1.5 per cent.
With any luck, we might get back to 2.6 per cent by 2016.
How did these experts get it so wrong? In the words of the finance minister, no one could have predicted the sudden decrease in oil prices.
Absolutely right. Nor can they really predict long term growth nor the creation of jobs nor prosperity. Indeed, any promises made will be based on assumptions that may or may not play out over the long term.
Sure, Canada has enjoyed reasonable growth over the long term. One statistic provided in the budget documents says Canada has grown by 15.6 per cent since the recession - more than any other country in the world.
But in economics past performance is no surety of future growth. Oil prices could stay low for a very long time and the economy, as a consequence, would be dragged down with them.
More to the point, measuring economic growth as a percentage is a misleading representation. Consider an increase of a dollar in, say, the price of a commodity. If the commodity costs one dollar to begin with, then the increase is 100 per cent. A large increase but you still have something that is only worth $2.
On the other hand, if the original price was $100, then the increase will be only 1 per cent but the price will now be $101. If I am selling, I know which I would prefer. When it comes to oil, for example, the price of a barrel right now means small changes will produce large percentage increases in the price.
Looks good but doesn't mean much.
As to helping "hard-working individuals and families" (note to slackers: you are out of luck), the increases in the Universal Child Care Benefit seem to be the only real provision. That is, unless you are a senior. Or a small business owner.
Strangely enough, offering up incentives to their "base" doesn't seem to strike the Conservatives as a little unfair to the rest of us. It is an inherent problem with this government. They seem to think they only need to govern for the people who vote for them.
In any case, the money going into redressing family issues would appear to be a little misplaced. The example the government provides is: "Henry and Cathy are a couple with two children, Grace and Elizabeth. Henry earns $84,000 and Cathy earns $36,000. As a result of actions taken by the Government since 2006, their family will receive $6,640 in tax relief and enhanced benefits in 2015, allowing Henry and Cathy to invest their hard-earned money where they see fit."
Their combined family income is $120,000, which is well above the Canadian average of $74,540 and dwarfs the average income of $39,350 for single parent families. Moreover, most of the money in their tax relief was provided in previous budget, such as the decrease in the GST and the Universal Child Care benefit. For the average family income splitting is limited.
It is a joke for single parent families.
Yes, just ahead of a federal election, the Conservatives have supplied us with a budget filled with hope and promise, targeted at their base, and not really delivering much of anything for people in need.
It is also $290.3 billion in revenue, drawn from the likes of you and I. What a great story.
