OTTAWA — As Prime Minister Mark Carney gets ready to host U.S. President Donald Trump and other leaders at the G7 summit in Alberta, analysts say Canada's most important goal will be to keep the G7 from falling apart — even if that means not issuing a joint statement.
"Keeping this informal international organization together will, I think, be a mark of success," said Sen. Peter Boehm, a former diplomat who played a central role in Canada’s participation in the G7 for decades.
"The challenge I think that we will be seeing at Kananaskis is whether we still have like-mindedness in the G7, and whether that can still project (unity), in terms of dealing with some of the big global challenges."
The G7 includes the United States, France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, Italy and Canada, as well as the European Union. For five decades, the group's members have coordinated how liberal democracies respond to economic and social challenges.
The group has set the tone for other industrialized democracies and the United Nations for decades, and in recent years has gone beyond economics to focus on global security.
Each G7 nation takes a turn at a rotating presidency of the group; this year is Canada's turn. Carney will welcome leaders to Kananaskis, Alta., on Sunday and the summit runs through Tuesday.
The meetings come days after Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes and after months of Trump disparaging multilateral institutions and implementing tariffs widely seen as damaging to the global economy.
Trump has said repeatedly that Russia should rejoin the group it was expelled from after it invaded Ukraine in 2014 — despite Moscow saying it has no interest in doing so.
This year's summit was organized hastily. This spring's election and Justin Trudeau's resignation as prime minister caused the bureaucracy to scale back its planning and outreach to other G7 countries.
It will be Carney's first major summit, though Boehm notes he took part in G7 and G20 meetings during his former career as a central banker.
The summit normally ends with a joint communiqué, a lengthy statement outlining views shared by G7 countries that is negotiated over the course of weeks, and often through the night during the summit. In 2019, however, France issued a chair's statement — a step Boehm said G7 leaders reserve for the worst-case scenario when the leaders are unable to arrive at a consensus.
"What's the point of driving towards consensus when you're not going to get it?" he said, adding he does not expect this year's G7 summit to issue a full communiqué.
"There is always going to be some bumps and hiccups, and one country not seeing it quite the way the others do, but it's a venerable institution."
Federal officials who briefed Canadian media last Thursday hinted that this G7 might not end with a joint statement.
"Canada is adopting a focused approach this year. We have a streamlined number of priorities, ministerial meetings and negotiated outcome documents," said a senior official who spoke on the condition she not be named.
"We really want to ensure that we continue to focus on actions that we can take together."
Kerry Buck, a former Canadian ambassador, said it might be "impossible" to reach agreement with the U.S. on things like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, climate change and the need to preserve free trade.
"It's in no one's interest to pick a fight and have open conflict at the table," Buck told a panel held by the Canadian International Council on June 4.
"A message of disunity coming from the leaders would actually do more damage to the G7 and it's in our interest to preserve it."
Buck said she expects the one-on-one meetings on the sidelines of the summit will lead to fruitful "quiet diplomacy."
"I would aim for a thin G7 leaders declaration at best, (and) work to minimize damage to the institution," she said.
Carney arrives Sunday afternoon in Alberta and has a series of bilateral meetings scheduled with G7 leaders and some of the non-G7 guests who he invited.
The actual summit kicks off Monday. Boehm said it usually starts with a discussion on the global economy led by the U.S. president.
A working lunch could touch on themes like energy security, artificial intelligence and critical minerals.
The afternoon is expected to be about security, including Canada's concerns about wildfires and foreign interference.
Tuesday is expected to focus on foreign policy and involve at least 10 invited leaders from non-G7 countries or international institutions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could play a large role, though the recent hostilities between Israel and Iran might also loom large.
North Korea is a frequent topic at the G7 table, Boehm said, adding he hopes the discussion also touches on the crisis in international development spurred by the U.S. pulling back from foreign aid.
The agenda has lengthy gaps between the sessions — time set aside for leaders to meet their new peers. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz only started his new job last month, just as Carney's post-election ministry was sworn in.
Boehm said many leaders will want to meet Trump and the president prefers one-on-one chats to multilateral meetings.
This month's talks could also shape ministerial meetings that Canada can host later in the year, particularly on energy and the environment.
John Kirton, head of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto, notes that two G7 ministerial meetings already hosted by Canada generated much consensus on issues like artificial intelligence in banking and maritime security.
Kirton said he is "predicting a significant performance" even if there is no joint communiqué.
"I'm expecting that there will be probably a short, crisp, compact concluding chair's statement," he said.
He also predicts Canada will release six subject-specific documents summarizing the general position of G7 members.
G7 hosts also tend to unveil a major development or humanitarian project — a "signature initiative" — in a bid to get funding from partner countries. Canada has previously used the G7 to advance education for girls in conflict zones and maternal health in poorer countries, while Italy last year focused on biological threats in Africa.
It's not clear if Canada will have the cash to make a major announcement this year. Kirton cited a budget crunch among G7 members, while Boehm said the spring election stopped a lot of outreach Canada would normally do in the months leading up to a summit.
Some are anticipating a project pitch that wouldn't involve large sums of money, such as an initiative aimed at countering transnational repression.
Given its power, the G7 is a target for advocates on a range of issues who hope to see their priorities reflected in the communiqué. Ottawa has faced calls to speak out against arbitrary detainment, Africa's debt crisis and Pakistan's Kashmir dispute with India.
Business and civil society leaders will be holding a series of side events associated with the summit, although many will be far removed from the leaders' summit in Kananaskis.
The RCMP said it has set up "three designated G7 demonstration zones" that will be broadcast to G7 leaders with video and audio, and that the leaders will be far from the protests.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 15, 2025.
Dylan Robertson, The Canadian Press
