The best weather to spare us from flooding this spring is cool weather well into June.
There are no immediate dangers of flooding now, but there are conditions that indicate a possible flood situation for the Fraser River as summer comes on.
The April 1 manual snowpack survey has been completed by technicians who went to mountaintop data stations around the area.
That data, and the figures from the computerized measuring stations around the region, has now been calculated together.
There are two categories of snow: the high levels up in the mountains and the low levels down in the valleys. Up at the higher elevations the snow is very close to normal depths and that doesn't typically melt until late spring/early summer.
However, down below the depths are much deeper than normal and has fallen behind in the typical melting rate.
Prince George flood hazard technician Lyle Larsen said this has set up a tight situation. If we get a warm trend now, the low-elevation snows have the capacity to cause flooding.
If it melts slowly and then we run into typical early summer weather, the snows in the high mountains will drop into the charged lowlands and again the flood possibility is raised.
"If temperatures remain cool throughout the spring and throughout part of the summer, that would give us the best possible conditions. The snowpack would melt off at a reasonable rate," he said.
"We had similar conditions in 2002 where the snowpack was similar to this year and we had cooler spring temperatures like we've had this year. When the weather did warm up, that resulted in some minor flooding on the Fraser in the Prince George area. At this point in time, we have the potential for a similar kind of event."
Adding to the flood risk would be any new amounts of snow and/or rain.
Some industries, like forestry and agriculture and fisheries, can be helped by the overabundance of precipitation held in the area's mountains this spring.
"Normal or above-normal snowpack is good for replenishing lake levels and recharging groundwater aquifers that were depleted last year when we had some drought conditions," Larsen said. "Particularly this lower level snowpack, which is well above normal, this is good news for those conditions."
Another full survey will be conducted, as is the case every year, on May 1, May 15 and June 1.
BASELINE 100
The baseline figure - normal - is calculated at 100 for any given area. The amount above or below normal is applied to 100 as a percentage. Example: 145 per cent of normal means 45 per cent higher than the average; 90 per cent of normal means 10 per cent less than the average.
Lower elevations:
- McBride area: 145 per cent of normal
- Prince George area: 155 per cent of normal
Higher elevations:
- Upper Fraser and Nechako watersheds combined: 105 per cent of normal
- Skeena and Nass watersheds combined: 102 per cent of normal
- Peace-country watershed: 99 per cent of normal
