The B.C. Ministry of Forests is contemplating different harvesting levels scenarios in the Prince George Timber Supply area over the next century to contend with the fallout from the mountain pine beetle epidemic.
The forecast drop in timber supply, regardless of the scenario, is expected to have economic implications for the communities in the timber supply area which include Prince George, Vanderhoof and Fort St. James, as well as several First Nations.
The Prince George timber supply area's current allowable timber harvest is 14.94 million cubic metres, increased nearly 60 per cent from its pre-beetle epidemic level.
"The implication of changes in the allowable annual cut for local communities is an important consideration in the timber supply review," says the 56-page report.
"After 12 years, the analysis indicated that the supply of timber will begin to decline by year 20 and could be about 40 to 60 percent of current harvest levels. This magnitude of reduction in the timber supply would reduce the level of employment supported by the forest sector, based on the current focus on solid wood and pulp-based products," notes the report.
The province is seeking public input on the report which is available at www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts before the chief forester sets a new harvest level later this year.
The first scenario laid out in the report would retain the harvest level for the next approximately 12 years, focusing on the salvageable beetle-killed timber until its gone. The harvest level would then drop rapidly so that by year 15, the harvest level would hit about 5 million cubic metres. By year 20, the harvest level would bottom out at 4 million cubic metres where it would stay for the next two decades. By year 40, the harvest levels would climb to about 6 million cubic metres. By year 50, it would be back at its pre-pine beetle harvest level of about 9 million cubic metres.
(Even though the harvest level has been jacked up to nearly 15 million cubic metres, in 2008, the harvest was much less at about 10 million cubic metres).
In the other two scenarios, the salvage of beetle-killed timber is reduced by harvesting more non-pine trees above their sustainable level. In these two scenario's, the harvest levels bottom out at a higher level, but take longer to rebound to a higher sustainable level of harvest.
In the second scenario, once the salvageable pine has eaten up in the Prince George area, capacity is shifted to the Fort St. James district.
Under this scenario, the harvest level immediately drops to 12.5 million cubic metres where it stays for the next 15 years. It then drops in quick steps until the harvest level bottoms out at about 6 million cubic metres in year 20. The harvest level begins to climb in year 40 but does not reach the 9-million-cubic-metre level until about year 70.
In the third scenario, capacity in the Prince George area is not shifted to the Fort St. James area, and instead eats up more non-pine timber. Under this scenario, the harvest level drop to 12. 5 million cubic metres, and starts a more stepped drop in year 10, bottoming out at below 5 million cubic metres in year 30. The harvest climbs to about 7 million cubic metres in year 40, but remains under 8 million cubic metres until year 80.
The mountain pine beetle epidemic has now killed close to 70 percent of the pine volume in the Prince George Timber Supply Area, or 28 percent of the total volume available for harvesting in the TSA.
Under the timber supply review, the chief forester must determine how much wood can be harvested in timber supply areas every ten years. The chief forester's allowable cut determination is meant to be an independent, professional judgment based on information ranging from technical forestry reports and public input, to the government's social and economic goals.
The Prince George's TSA's population was 102,428 in 2008, which had dropped six per cent in the past decade. The population is expected to increase a modest two per cent by 2020.
The timber supply review accounts for environmental concerns such as biodiversity, water quality, and scenic values, in addition to social and economic issues.
Comments on the timber supply analysis discussion paper will be received until March 24, 2010.
